Ehud Olmert’s “Convergence” Plan for the West Bank and U.S. Middle East Policy

•  No less important for the fortunes of the U.S.-led war on global terror than the actual strengthening of terror-supporting regimes and terrorist organizations is the perception of their strength and of U.S. weakness that will be engendered by an Israeli retreat from the West Bank. Today, in the absence of a free press and an open deliberative political process in the Arab and Islamic worlds, public opinion is molded through the propaganda organs of the pan-Arabic media like Al Jazeerah television, terror media like Hizbullah’s Al Manar television, and state-controlled media organs. It is also molded through indoctrination conducted in radical mosques throughout the region and the world.[46]

The perception engendered by these propaganda organs is one of U.S., Israeli and Western venality. The purpose of these propaganda organs is to cultivate and mobilize public support for the Islamic war against the U.S., Israel and the rest of the non-Muslim world. The success of such propaganda in fostering support and mobilizing resources and recruits for the global jihad are directly influenced by the perception of U.S., Israeli and general non-Muslim strength.[47]

The U.S. government has repeatedly acknowledged that the international campaign against the forces of global jihad is as much a fight for the hearts and minds of the Arab and Muslim world as it is a fight on the regular battlefields of war. From Paris and London to Karachi, to Ramallah to Teheran, U.S. officials are seeking ways to encourage those who respect liberal values of the rule of law, the emancipation of women, freedom of religion and of religious dissent, to speak out against the forces of global jihad.

The psychological and ideological impacts of an Israeli retreat from the West Bank – which is the cradle of Jewish civilization – on the forces of global jihad on the one hand, and the voices of moderation and liberalism in the Arab and Islamic worlds on the other will likely be dramatic and counterproductive. Just as was the case with Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza in the summer of 2005, the Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank will be perceived, not – as Olmert has claimed – as an invitation for moderation, but as a victory for global jihad. The consequence of this perception for the United States will be equally profound.

Nourished on conspiracy theories, anti-Semitic and anti-American myths for more than a generation, the Arab and Muslim world believes that Israelis a satellite of the U.S. Whether they believe that Israelcontrols the United States or that Americacontrols Israel, the conspiracy-mongers who control Arab and Islamic political perceptions believe that an Israeli defeat is an American defeat. They will surely present an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank as a major Israeli defeat. Directly affected by this perception will be U.S. efforts to mobilize governments, individuals and groups throughout the Arab and Islamic world to fight the forces of global jihad in their midst.[48]

Governments that are currently wavering between supporting the United  States and supporting the jihadists – from Paris to Jakarta to Cairo to Islamabad– will be forced to reassess their options in light of the perceived victory of the global jihad againstIsraeland the Hashemites.