Ehud Olmert’s “Convergence” Plan for the West Bank and U.S. Middle East Policy

From a U.S. perspective, the implementation of Olmert’s convergence plan will damage American efforts in the Global War on Terror in the Middle East and throughout the world on several levels. Jordan and Israel are the United States’ most stable allies in the region and their likely destabilization in the aftermath of the operation will both motivate and facilitate the operations of those fighting the U.S. in Iraq and other places in the region. The Palestinians are supported by terror supporting states such as Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria. The destabilization of Israel and Jordan will be perceived as a victory for these supporters of the Palestinians and they will be strengthened at the expense of America, which is perceived as Israel’s sponsor.

Indeed, in a manner even more significant globally than the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, which brought Hamas to power in the Palestinian Authority, an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank will be perceived as a strategic victory for Global Jihad. Recruitment efforts by organizations like al Qaeda worldwide and particularly in Europe, Turkey, India and Indonesia will be greatly strengthened.

Moreover, U.S. efforts at mobilizing support against jihadist groups and efforts in these states as well as in Iraq, the Persian Gulf region generally and the greater Middle East will be significantly weakened. Individuals, political leaders and civil society organizations throughout the region and the world that are overtly sympathetic to the U.S. and its goals of defeating global jihadist forces and democratizing the Middle East will be substantially and perhaps irreversibly weakened.

Although an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and the dismantlement of Israeli communities there seems consonant with traditional American policies in the Middle East, in light of the radicalization of Palestinian society, as evidenced by Hamas’ electoral victory in January 2006, it is unclear how an Israeli withdrawal today will align with U.S. national security interests and goals. Unfortunately, it seems evident that an Israeli retreat from the West Bank will empower the terror supporting, anti-American de facto Palestinian state and will create a new base for global terrorism.

In light of all this, the Bush Administration and the congressional leadership would be well-advised to refuse Olmert’s requests for U.S. support for his convergence plan while backing alternative policy options that will serve to strengthen U.S. allies in the Global War on Terror, while weakening those opposed to U.S. efforts. Such alternative policies will be the subject of an additional Center for Security Policy report that will be released in the near future.