Excerpts of TESTIMONY BY ROGER W. ROBINSON, JR.

"The bottom line concerning recent reports of the [Cienfuegos] project’s revival under the sponsorship and coordination of Moscow is simply this: The Jurgua complex is even more frighteningly flawed and unacceptable today — given the passage of time and corrosive exposure to the elements — than it was some three years ago.

Why Cienfuegos Matters

"Today the United States is simultaneously facing several fateful foreign policy crossroads — the Balkans crisis, China policy, the Middle East peace process, managing Iraq, Iranian nuclear and oil-related developments, the Korean peninsula and others. The White House has thus far generally erred on the side of "engagement" as opposed to containment, isolation (e.g., like that of Iran) or even, in the case of Bosnia, limited military action. China broke the code for Cuba and other centrally-controlled economies on permitting economic liberalization while maintaining repressive political control.

"As shrewd observers of the international scene — assisted by the massive Russian signals-intelligence facility at Lourdes, Cuba — Fidel and his associates have had little difficulty in judging the time propitious to either complete their existing fatally-flawed VVER-440 reactors or shake down the U.S. and international community for some kind of substantial compensatory alternative. After all, what other conclusion can Havana reasonably reach from the cynical, short-sighted Western policies on display in the North Korean reactor-payoff scheme and the Russian-Iranian nuclear gambit? In short, it is clear to the Castro government that, with Moscow’s help, the United States can be had.

"Like Moscow’s two-strand Siberian gas pipeline deal in the early 1980’s, the Cienfuegos complex is an unprecedented "national project" with potentially decisive implications for the country’s long-term energy viability, hard currency earnings structure, attraction of other foreign direct investment, access to international financial institutions and, of course, nationalistic pride. More subtle are the national security parallels of these pivotal energy deals.

"In a somewhat different way, Cuba’s completion of the Juragua reactors could likewise empower the Castro government with a menacing — and even devastating — new policy lever in its relations with the United States. A Cuban nuclear accident — either of a technical nature or the result of sabotage — could have a similar effect to the detonation of a nuclear weapon near the United States, laying down a curtain of radioactive fallout that, depending on the season and prevailing winds, could either stretch across the lower tier of this country to Texas or race up the Eastern Seaboard to Washington D.C. and possibly beyond within the first four days.

"It is important to recall that Castro already has committed some $1.2 billion to constructing this facility and faces a similar sum required to complete the two reactors — a price-tag equivalent to almost two years of his country’s total hard currency export income. Accordingly, there will probably be no near-term end to Havana’s discussions with Russia, Germany, France, Italy, Brazil and others concerning how and when to revive the Cienfuegos deal, even if it should again be consigned to mothballs due to robust U.S. Congressional opposition. The only way around this Saddam Hussein-like phenomenon is to put a proverbial stake in the heart of this coming nuclear nightmare now.

"…This Moscow-sponsored Cuban nuclear deal is of a piece with energy-related foreign policy dramas currently playing an increasingly dominant role in world politics. For example, if one examines key underpinnings of the Russian invasion of Chechnya (e.g., securing strategic pipelines), Kremlin efforts to isolate Azerbaijan and Turkey, Moscow’s intention to ignore provisions of the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) agreement in the Caucasus, the escalating threat posed by Iran and North Korea, China’s increasingly belligerent forays in the Spratley Islands and Germany’s plans to develop a nuclear research reactor using highly-enriched, weapons-grade uranium, a common theme emerges — energy.

"…To preserve the credibility of U.S. anti-proliferation efforts and the message to our allies and potential adversaries that we mean business on ensuring the safe, benign global development of nuclear energy, it is essential that we view the Cienfuegos nuclear project as a litmus test of American political will for the 21st century.

What’s Wrong With This Picture?

"What could be so dangerous about these reactors? The simple fact is, of course, that virtually everything is dangerous about these reactors. Several technical experts — some of whom are with us today — have discussed the numerous and debilitating technical faults of the plant, faults that are so fundamental to the construction and operation of the reactors that no "fixes" such as a modern control room or IAEA "safeguards" will be able to remove the danger. It is these critical safety issues that have brought us together today

"These flaws are illustrative of the myriad technical problems facing the Juragua reactors. Coupled with Cuba’s inadequate human and technological infrastructure — poor even by the Soviet standards that gave the world Chernobyl — a rational conclusion can be drawn: Any nuclear facility constructed in Cuba at any time in the future should be constructed entirely from the ground up, and must not incorporate any construction or components present in today’s Juragua project.

A Syndicated Russian-European Restart?

"…This estimated $2 – $2.4 billion project is well beyond the indigenous capability of a destitute Cuba and would require large-scale financing from European suppliers and Russia. As the architect of the decision to revitalize Juragua, Russia’s Ministry of Atomic Energy (MinAtom) — with full government support — is reportedly seeking to syndicate the required financing to complete the project through a consortium of European suppliers said to include the German giant Siemens, Electrictie de France and Ansaldo SpA of Italy. ⁽¹⁾ Given Cuba’s atrocious sovereign credit rating, deemed worst in the world in 1994 by Euromoney ⁽²⁾, there is little doubt that these firms will be provided by their respective governments with 100% taxpayer-guaranteed credits and/or insurance coverage to virtually eliminate the otherwise untenable commercial and political risk associated with substantial exports to Havana.

"Not only would Moscow like to see prospects improve for much-needed Cuban debt repayments (no matter how modest) by bringing Juragua on-line, other political and economic benefits would likely include:

• A potential future bargaining chip with the U.S. — probably in the context of the Gore-Chernomyrdin Commission — to secure multi-billion dollar (U.S. taxpayer-financed) concessions if the Administration insists on the project’s termination or total reconstruction.

 

• Long term preferential treatment for Russian suppliers in a potential expanding Cuban market due, in no small part, to the electric power, jobs, infrastructure development and West European life-support provided by an operating Juragua reactor complex.

"…It is a mystery why Greenpeace, Worldwatch and other environmental activists have not already mobilized to oppose the revival of the Juragua reactors. In relative importance, the dangers to the ecosystem likely to emanate from Cienfuegos dwarf those associated with the celebrated proposed sinking of Shell’s Brent Spar off-shore oil storage facility. If this averting of eyes continues, it would be fair to speculate that some twisted sense of political correctness may be at work here.

Conclusion & Policy Recommendations

"In conclusion, our nation is now forced to decide if the Cienfuegos project is to serve as a case study of how to shorten the life of tyrannical regimes which deny basic human liberties. In short, is our policy toward Cuba to be one of "engagement" and expanding Western life-support or isolation and bail-out avoidance?

"Castro is likely calculating — as a minimal fall-back position — that the presence of this profound new danger off our shores will ultimately result in U.S. "engagement" advocates rushing forward with a proposal to "make the reactors safe" and take advantage of this important new "window of bilateral cooperation." Thus far, he has probably been encouraged that yet another Clinton Administration reactor buy-off gambit is in prospect. It will probably be up to the Congress to prove him dead wrong… Simply put, what the beleaguered Cuban people need now is to have the Castro government put out of business, not given a new, taxpayer-financed lease on life.

"On the matter of "hot-button" issues for the international business community like contract sanctity (and the avoidance of), extraterritoriality, unilateralism and import controls, some new global realities have to be faced squarely. With some twenty or more countries actively seeking to acquire weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile delivery systems — primarily through Iraqgate-style covert procurement networks — it is an unaffordable luxury to respect these strongly-supported features of the international trading system in circumstances of overriding peril to our nation’s fundamental security interests. Like Conoco’s ill-fated Iranian venture, this project represents such a circumstance.

"Finally, the Russian government needs to understand forthwith that continuing to support this MinAtom initiative to revive the Juragua reactors — much like its efforts to complete Iran’s light-water reactors — will have severe consequences. For example, MinAtom’s eligibility to serve as a partner with the U. S. Enrichment Corp. in the $12 billion U.S. – Russia uranium deal would need to be reexamined. If necessary, Congress should utilize upcoming legislative opportunities to suspend — and even terminate — this deal with MinAtom contingent on that Russian agency’s handling of this Cuban reactor deal. The American people should not be asked to bridge-finance Russia’s atomic energy ministry when it is simultaneously engaged in supplying, and eventually fueling, a burgeoning nuclear threat to the United States.

"Other bilateral initiatives in the energy area — such as U.S. Eximbank and OPIC financing, guarantees and insurance coverage to support expanded Russian oil and gas production — should likewise be put at risk by the Congress, pending Moscow’s immediate disengagement from this prospective Cuban Chernobyl. Any attempts by Russia or other governments to fuel completed reactors in Cuba should be interdicted by the United States, by any measures deemed necessary.

"…All of the presidential candidates should, in the course of their respective 1996 campaigns, pledge to the American people that they will not permit — through announced disincentives for Moscow and allied firms or, failing that, direct interdiction — the irretrievably-flawed nuclear reactor complex at Cienfuegos to be completed, fueled and brought on line, at least not on their watch."

(1) "Russians Say They Are Coming to Build Cuban Nuclear Plant", The Wall Street Journal, 6 June 1995.

(2) Euromoney, "1994 Country Risk Report".