Go Navy missile defense!

Decision Brief     No. 05-D 10                                                2005-02-18

With each passing day, evidence grows that two of the world’s most dangerous rogue states, North Korea and Iran, will be able to equip their arsenals of ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads. The prospect that American forces, allies and interests – and ultimately the United States itself – will be at risk from attack by such weapons offers a powerful validation of President Bush’s visionary and courageous determination to deploy defenses against ballistic missile-delivered threats.

Missile Defense, from the Sea

Last Thursday, the United States Navy confirmed that the President’s vision can be realized in a near-term and highly cost-effective way – from the sea. For the fifth time out of six attempts, Navy ships successfully tracked, intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile in-fight, using their existing AEGIS fleet air defense systems and a new Standard Missile, dubbed the SM-3.

Three features make this test particularly significant: For the first time, the hardware and software utilized was the operational configuration (known as AEGIS BMD 3.0) that will be installed in all other AEGIS missile defense ships. No less noteworthy is the fact that the SM-3 utilized to shoot down the target was one of the first of the production rounds to come off the manufacturing line. And, the personnel used to conduct the test were the regular crew of the U.S.S. Lake Erie.

In other words, this was the “real deal.” The option of complementing land-based anti-missile defenses with sea-based assets capable of both tracking ballistic missiles and destroying them in-flight is now in hand.

In addition to the exemplary performance of the Lake Erie and her crew, Thursday’s test also featured another important development. A second AEGIS ship, the USS Russell, brought to bear for the first time a new capability known as the AEGIS Ballistic Missile Signal Processor (BMSP). This S-Band radar provided real-time discrimination and classification of the target, information that considerably enhances the probability of intercept. The AEGIS BMSP holds great promise for expanding missile defense radar coverage at a fraction of the cost of other approaches.

The Enemy is Us

These achievements are all the more remarkable for another reason: The sea-based missile defense program has, for most of the past thirteen years, suffered from minimal support from the Navy’s leadership and outright hostility from the Pentagon’s missile defense bureaucracy. The former have tended to see this mission as a diversion of scarce resources from the other priority air- and sea-control duties for which the AEGIS ships were designed.

For the latter, sea-based anti-missile systems have generally been anathema, albeit for varying reasons. During the Clinton years, the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty was sacrosanct and even seagoing missile defenses that were incapable of stopping long-range ballistic missiles – and therefore not covered by the Treaty – were considered to be problematic. Consequently, the Navy’s programs were often starved of funds.

Amazingly, things have not been much better under a George W. Bush administration that came to office determined to withdraw from the ABM Treaty and to deploy effective, global missile defenses at the earliest possible time. The Missile Defense Agency has largely been allowed to give short shrift to the development and deployment of Navy anti-missile systems, in favor of ground-based interceptors and longer-term research and development efforts.

Unfortunately, shortly before the Navy’s successful test, the Ground-based Missile Defense system experienced the latest in a series of experimental setbacks. While the threat of missile attack demands that that program be brought to completion – and that such further testing and developmental work be conducted as is necessary to get there, the achievements of the sea-based missile defense program to date demands a much more assertive effort be undertaken to realize its potential.

Getting There from Here

Such an effort should involve the following components: