Huge Implications for Burundi Leadership Meeting this Weekend

Burundi’s ruling political party, the National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD), will hold a party congress on Saturday to determine if President Pierre Nkurunziza will seek a third five-year term in office. The meeting’s outcome will have significant implications for the east-African country, which has undergone political turmoil in recent days.

Last Friday, hundreds of people took to the streets to protest Nkurunziza potentially running for reelection this June. The situation grew out of control when some protesters threw stones and the police responded with tear gas and water cannons. Prosecutors said on Saturday that 65 people were charged with rebellion after being arrested, and at least two policemen were injured.

The issue is so contentious because Burundi’s constitution and the peace deal that ended a brutal 12-year civil war in 2005 both limit the president’s time in office to a maximum of ten years. While Nkurunziza’s supporters argue that his first term does not count towards the ten-year total because he was picked to rule rather than elected, opponents believe another term would violate the constitution.

This tension has caused over 8,000 Burundians to flee to neighboring Rwanda and Democratic Republic of Congo over the past two weeks. Many people are fearful of threats made by Imbonerakure, the pro-government militia and youth wing of CNDD-FDD, and the government’s warning on Monday to call on the army if protests intensify.

Burundi’s Defense Minister, General Pontien Gaciyubwenge, asserted, “At the request of the Supreme Commander [the president] or another authority, I am ready to accompany the other security actors in resisting the detractors of peace, and together seek peace for the people of Burundi.”

The United Nations Security Council called on both sides to not engage in violence or intimidation and said it will “respond to any actions in Burundi that threaten the peace, security or stability in Burundi by actively facilitating violence,” such as arming youth groups.

UN rights chief Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein said Wednesday that Burundi is at a “crossroads” between a free and fair election towards a brighter future and repression that would harken back to the country’s violent past.

Meanwhile, the United States State Department is worried about the Burundian situation and may “take steps, including, where appropriate, by denying US visas to individuals who order, plan, or participate in acts of violence.”

With the opposition seemingly unwilling to bend and government forces using aggressive rhetoric, the country may breakout into chaos – even civil war – if CNDD-FDD endorses Nkurunziza for president. Even if the ruling party delays the decision past this weekend, presidential candidates must register from May 1-9 for the June elections.

The international community, including the U.S., appears willing to intervene in Burundi to some degree if the situation gets out of hand. Africa’s stability is important to U.S. and global security, and instability in Burundi can spread to other countries, a trend already happening on the continent.

Nkurunziza not running for office seems the best way to avoid an escalation of violence. It is likely, however, that Nkurunziza will be nominated by his party despite tensions, although it is not certain. If CNDD-FDD decides to support his reelection bid, Burundi may revert back to its pre-2005 days.