Iraqi Government Forces Attempt to Retake the Town of Hawija

As the fight against the Islamic State continues in Iraq, Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said that the government forces have begun operations on September 21^st to retake the town of Hawija, from the Islamic State, located in the Kirkuk province. The Kurdish Peshmerga forces have held areas of Kirkuk province under their control after the Iraqi army collapsed during the 2014 Islamic State offensive.

Iraqi and Peshmerga forces seek to prevent the Islamic State from seizing oil fields in the northern region. The Iraqi forces deployed in the north and west of Hawija are pushing southward along the Tigris River and eleven villages were captured from the Islamic state in the Hawija district area, according to Iraqi military leadership.

Iraqi forces are leading the Hawija operation, alongside Shiite militia groups. The Kurdish Peshmerga aren’t currently part of the offensive force but, expect to take part when the push on Hawija begins according to a Peshmerga spokesperson.

Up to 85,000 people could be displaced from the Hawija district and up to 30,000 of them would be children who are in extreme danger and malnourished.  In 2014, Hawija was once home to a population of over 400,000, since then that number has decreased dramatically.

As the referendum nears, and the prospect of a Kurdish effort at independence seems increasingly likely, any action by any side to alter the the ethnic demographics of the province could become a flashpoint for conflict. Kurdish and Shia militia leaders have already traded barbs.   If the Iraq government removes Kurds from the Hawija district this may have a negative effect toward the referendum for Kurdish independence.

Hawija is located 30 miles west of the city of Kirkuk and makes up 30% of the Kirkuk Province. The town fell to Islamic State in June of 2014. Since then, it has been a strategic position and the oil fields have been a major source of funding  for the Islamic state.  The Islamic state has used oil-rich regions in the northern territories in Iraq to sell oil on the black market as well as through smuggling to buyers along the Turkish border.

Hawija has also been used as a center for manufacturing explosives, as well as a base to launch attacks into surrounding areas. Hawija is also home to four training camps for the Islamic State.

This town is significant similarly to Raqqa in Syria, because it is one of the last major towns held under IS.

As the operation launches, the Kurdish Regional government intend to hold a non-binding independence referendum on September 25^th. The referendum is not vote to officially split from the Iraqi government, however, it signals government talks between the Iraqi central government and the Kurdish Regional Government towards establishing independence in the future.

The Iraqi government, United States and the United Nations have opposed the vote’s timing and their independence, because it is coinciding with the final stages of battle with the Islamic state, as well as cause regional insurgency.

Representatives from Turkey, Iran, and Iraq have agreed to discuss different responses  to the Kurds in northern Iraq over the referendum. Turkey and Iran, insist that the referendum will instigate potential conflict to arise within their own Kurdish minorities if the Iraqi Kurds vote in favor of independence on September 25^th.

Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan, has carried out military exercises involving an estimated 100 tanks near the Turkey-Iraq border  and threatened to impose sanctions against the Iraqi Kurds.

Iran’s head of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, had stated that they will close their border, withdraw their diplomatic mission in Erbil and Sulaimani, and their security forces will feel free to intervene  “deeper”  into the Kurdistan Region if the referendum is held.

On September 12th the Iraqi parliament voted against the Iraqi Kurds from holding the referendum. The central government in Baghdad fears that the vote because a wider regional conflict between the Arabs and Kurds is more likely and Iraq as well as Iran and Turkey are willing to enter into a conflict the Kurds continue toward independence. In the opinion of the U.S. and Iraqi governments would be detrimental toward the fight against IS.

The Kurdish government claim that the offensives launched in Hawija will not deter from their referendum being held on the 25^th, and that their referendum will not deter from the fight against IS currently in Hawiia. The referendum and the offensives launched in Hawija will have effect on each other despite the claims of the Kurdish regional government. After the referendum on Monday it will be interesting to see when and where conflict arises amongst all regional parties.