Is Russia About To Abandon Assad? Probably Not.

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A report from the London-based Arabic newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat citing “anonymous Western diplomatic sources” states that Russia has been changing their stance on supporting the Bashar al-Assad regime of Syria over the past three months. These sources noted that a Russian representative of a diplomatic delegation evaded directly answering a question over whether or not Russia was planning for a Syria without Assad. Allegedly, the representative said that “what concerns Russia is to safeguard its strategic interests and secure the future of minorities” in Syria, the first time Russia had hinted at anything other than full support for the Assad regime. The Asharq Al-Awsat article also cited Syrian rebel sources stating that 100 Russian diplomatic and technical personnel had left Syria and returned to Russia. Most of the Russian technical personnel were reportedly working alongside Iranian and Hezbollah agents active in Syria. The same sources also stated that the Russians had not sent supply aircraft to deliver equipment to the Syrian army in three months.

Gulf sources stated that the change in policy happened after meetings between the Gulf states and Russia. Russia apparently seeks to boost economic ties with the Gulf nations in the wake of the sanctions against Russia and the oil price collapse. Given that the Gulf states are extremely hostile to Assad and Iran, it can be inferred that any such negotiations would have limits to Russian support to Iran and Syria as a condition set by the Gulf states. However, experts doubt that Russia is about to abandon Assad. To have Islamic State control Syria, robbing Russia and Iran of an ally in the Middle East and further denying Russia the port at Tartus would be a foreign policy disaster for Russia. If Russia is indeed abandoning support for the Syrian government, then it would spell ill for al-Assad’s future.

On Tuesday however, Russian Foreign Minister Sergej Lavrov encouraged NATO to join in the Syrian civil war by conducting air strikes on the behalf of the Syrian government. Lavrov condemned the United States and allies for not aiding Assad in the battle against Islamic State, blaming them as well for the collapses in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya. This seems to indicate that the Russians are indeed still for aiding Assad, but are showing signs of desperation, whether it be from economic problems preventing them from giving aid to the Syrian government, or the Assad regime faltering in the civil war.

Interestingly enough, all these events happen to coincide with Russia giving support to Iraq. Sergej Lavrov and his Iraqi counterpart, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, met in Moscow on March 19th where Russia pledged to give aid to Iraq in their struggle against Islamic State. Last June, Russia had sold Su-25 attack jets to Iraq. Just as Russia has been making investments in Afghanistan, so too have Russian businesses been active in Iraq lately. LUKoil and Gazprom, two Russian energy companies, have been buying shares in Iraq’s oil fields. And as of May 21st, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi met with Russian Prime Minister Dimitrij Medvedev to discuss further cooperation in defense, economics, and the energy sector. Of particular interest to the Iraqis was the sale of more aircraft to bolster the Iraqi Air Force. The United States had previously agreed to sell the Iraqi Air Force advanced combat aircraft such as F-16 Viper fighter jets and AH-64 Apache Longbow attack helicopters, but the sales have been put on hold due to concerns of the Iraqi government using them against their own citizens. With Iraq currently cut off from purchasing combat aircraft from the United States, they are forced to rely on Russian and Iranian suppliers.

A potential Russian turn away from the current Baathist regime in Syria is unlikely given their strong support for allied Shia regimes in the Middle East. A strong Sunni government in Syria would likely prove uncontrollable, though Russia is clearly attempting to take advantage of the US’ ineffectualness towards Iraq to improve relations with the troubled nation. Regarding Syria and the current events in the civil war there, Russia is most likely preparing for the possibility of a post-Assad Syria, and is opening the door to working with a successor government in order to preserve their interests in the region.

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