Ivory Coast Becomes Newest Victim of AQIM

On Sunday, March 13, 2016, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) opened fire on a heavily packed beach in Grand Bassam, Ivory Coast. Six gunman reportedly killed 18 people, 15 civilians and 3 Ivory Coast soldiers. The fighting ceased after security forces killed all 6 attackers.

Since joining AQ, AQIM has been able to expand its reach to countries such as Mali, Niger, Ivory Coast, and Burkina Faso. Last November, AQIM claimed responsibility for an attack that killed 21 at the Radison Blu hotel in Mali. AQIM followed up this attack with another major strike in January on a hotel in Burkina Faso that killed 29.

The group seemed to be slowing down its operations, but has experienced a reawakening after the Mali terrorist organization al-Murabitoun pledged allegiance to AQIM. It is unclear who the leader of al-Murabitoun is, but the group reportedly contains fighters loyal to Mokhtar Belmokhtar, a former senior leader of AQIM. Al-Murabitoun has been able to launch several notable attacks on Algerian and Mali targets, the most notorious being the attack on the Amenas gas station in 2013 that killed 37. By assuming al-Murabitoun into their ranks, AQIM is able to claim attacks carried out by al-Murabitoun, giving the perception the group is still heavily active in the region.

Algerian forces were able to push AQIM out of its former stronghold by the Mediterranean Sea to the Sahel region where it currently resides. The group’s successes in Northern Mali prompted the UN to begin a peacekeeping mission that is currently ongoing in Mali.

Due to the ineffectiveness of the mission, the UN has sought the help of French forces who entered Mali in 2013. French forces were able to win back several towns in the North, but these successes may be causing the group to move further south into countries that have little counter terrorism capabilities.

With AQIM moving south, they will likely continue to look to take advantage of weaker nations like the Ivory Coast.

The Ivory Coast is made up of a primarily Muslim North and a Christian dominated South, which is similar to several other African nations facing internal violence. Ivory Coast has faced internal tensions for years, and the culmination of the tensions led to civil war in 2002. The first civil war officially ended in 2007, but another civil war emerged in 2011 when President Laurent Gbagbo refused to give up power to Alassane Ouattara.

While the current UN mission to the Ivory Coast has been able to stabilize most of the country, groups like AQIM are more than capable to take advantage of lingering tensions. Crime rates and political violence are still extremely high in Ivory Coast and almost half of the nation lives under the international poverty line, which could lead to resentment towards the government.

The U.S. Department of State Bureau of Diplomatic Security (OSAC) lists the Ivory Coast as having a high chance of terrorism. While the country has seen little terrorism inside its borders, the amount of neighboring countries that house terrorism coupled with high civil unrest makes the Ivory Coast a probable target for terrorist groups.

France has been a major contributor to counterterrorism efforts in West Africa. French forces have been battling AQIM for several years now, and they have established presences in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Ivory Coast. While France is combating terrorism, they have also garnered animosity from locals in some of these countries, including the Ivory Coast. OSAC mentions a growing anti-France rhetoric amongst Ivory Coast citizens, which is not a new feeling amongst the country.

During Ivory Coast’s first civil war, French troops supporting the UN peacekeeping mission engaged Ivorian troops on several occasions. This resulted in heavy anti-French protests throughout the country.

Soon after the attack, AQIM published its report of the attack in four different languages: Arabic, French, English, and Spanish. This tactic is seen in Islamic State (IS) propaganda messages in order to reach a broader audience. With AQIM competing with IS in the region for recruits, they may be trying to adapt to changing standards and appeal to a larger audience.

AQIM formerly went by the names Armed Islamic Group (GIA) and Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), both of which opposed Algerian leadership in the 1990’s. The Algerian government was able to wage a successful counterterrorism campaign against the groups, and drove the organization to the brink of destruction. To gain more recruits and funding the GSPC aligned itself with Al Qaeda (AQ) in 2006, branding itself Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.

Successful counterterrorism efforts against AQIM have been forcing the group to move further South. While they still have a strong presence in Northern Mali, they will likely try to stretch French forces away from their primary bases of operation. AQIM will likely attempt to exploit religious tensions in Ivory Coast, as well as other factors plaguing neighboring countries in the Sahel.