Riyadh Conference on Yemen Unlikely to Change Situation on the Ground

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman hosted Yemen’s exiled government of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, several Yemeni political parties, and the Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary-General for a three day conference in Riyadh to discuss the current conflict in Yemen. The Iranian-backed Shiite Houthis and supporters of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was ousted during the Arab Spring, refused to attend.

Hadi, who the United States, United Nations, and Saudi Arabia all recognize as Yemen’s legitimate leader, was deposed in January when the Houthis took over Sana’a, Yemen’s capital, and declared control of the country. Since then, they have moved south to gain more territory, particularly Aden, the strategic southern port city. Pro-Hadi forces have been fighting the Houthis and Saleh supporters throughout the country.

A Saudi-led airstrike campaign has targeted the Houthis and Saleh-allied personnel because the Saudis see Iranian expansion and influence in neighboring Yemen as a national security threat and part of Tehran’s larger strategy to seek regional hegemony and surround Saudi Arabia.

Given these fears, those at this week’s meeting produced the “Riyadh Document,” which lays out several steps and ideas to bring stability to Yemen by reinserting the Hadi government into power and ending the Houthi coup supported by Saleh.

The document calls for creating safe zones in Yemen so Hadi can govern in certain areas and hopefully reestablish authority in the country. This idea is significant because efforts have been primarily focused on fighting the Houthis and pro-Saleh forces but not actually instituting the Hadi government; this could be a practical step towards that goal.

The Riyadh plan also proposes a joint Arab force with international backing to secure Yemeni cities and to support pro-Hadi forces on the ground. Furthermore, the document mentions increased humanitarian aid to those suffering from the conflict and investing in Yemen’s infrastructure and larger economy to create more job opportunities. There is also discussion of a draft constitution and the state’s future political structure.

Everyone at the meeting underscored the importance of adhering to UN Security Council Resolution 2216, which requires the Houthis to cede seized territory and lay down arms. Warring Yemeni parties will meet on May 28^th in Geneva for UN-sponsored talks, but Hadi’s government said it would join only if the Houthis pullback from seized territory while Saudi Arabia “guaranteed” Iran would not be invited.

Houthi leader Sayyed Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, meanwhile, said the conference was fueling the Yemeni conflict and that while his movement supports a political resolution, Saudi aggression is the primary cause of problems. Furthermore, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has increased his anti-Saudi rhetoric while several Iranian clerics have openly supported the Houthis, indicating this week’s conference will do little to alter Houthi and Iranian behavior.

While the Riyadh Document takes concrete steps to try and end the Yemeni conflict, it will likely not alter the situation on the ground. Neither Saudi Arabia nor the Houthis/Iran will lessen their efforts in Yemen given the country’s role in the Saudi-Iranian geopolitical fight and its importance in both Sunni and Shia eschatology. Therefore, this proxy war will continue for the foreseeable future.

The US must provide more arms, intelligence, and rhetorical support to the Saudi coalition and continue its naval presence by the Bab-al-Mandab Strait to stop Iranian ships from resupplying the Houthis and deter Tehran from conducting other nefarious behavior.

The Saudis need to believe that America supports them and a joint Arab force and is committed to confronting Iranian aggression in the region. In turn, the Saudis should not pursue anti-Shiite policies or rhetoric to enflame sectarian tension. While these actions will not end the Yemeni conflict, they can help pushback the Houthis and Iranian influence. After all, the Riyadh Document is ultimately a proposed strategy for the Saudi coalition to move forward in militarily defeating the Houthis, not a peace plan.