Rumors of Yeltsin’s Resignation Underscore Inadvisability of Clinton Trip to Moscow at This Time

(Washington, D.C.): At this writing, it is unclear whether Boris Yeltsin has actually taken the
official steps required to formalize what has already occurred de facto: An
end to the pretense
that he still runs Russia.

CBS News has broadcast a report that Yeltsin has signed an undated “order of resignation”
that
has not yet gone into effect — and that may still be rescinded. As of now, the Russian government
is dismissing the report as an unfounded rumor.

Whether the report is accurate or not, however, the reality is that Yeltsin has clearly
become
irrelevant to the unraveling political and economic situation in Russia. If anything, his
resignation and formal departure from the scene may actually help bring a measure of
stability,
something that has become increasingly incompatible with President Yeltsin’s mercurial rantings
and personnel actions.

It appears that such stability, however will be dictated by the Old Guard — epitomized by
Victor
Chernomyrdin and represented in the Duma and throughout the bureaucracy and
oligarch-dominated economy by (actual or erstwhile) Communists. There can be no illusion that
such
individuals will contemplate the sorts of systemic reforms needed to transform and save what
passes for democratic capitalism in Russia. More to the point, those calling the shots in the
post-Yeltsin era are not likely, left to their own devices, to contemplate changes in Russia’s
threatening
foreign policies and strategic force modernization.⁽¹⁾

Even if the President of the United States were not himself in a parlous political state, it is
hard to
imagine a more inopportune moment for him to be paying court to the Kremlin. Any deals struck
with Yeltsin — or, for that matter, with Chernomyrdin — are likely to have very uncertain
legitimacy or durability. This would be a particularly ill-advised basis upon which to negotiate
potentially dangerous arms control agreements.⁽²⁾ By the
same token, the Clinton
Administration’s reflexive inclination to provide unconditional financial and political support to
Yeltsin and his government raise the unsavory prospect that still more good money will be thrown
after bad in a vain effort to prop up the evaporating Russian regime.

The Bottom Line

There is no good reason for conducting a U.S.-Russian summit meeting at this time — and
plenty
of compelling ones for declining to do so. Even Mr. Clinton’s transparent determination to divert
attention from his domestic problems cannot justify running the risks associated with a meeting
under present circumstances. It should be apparent that the President’s own interests will not be
served by the parallels inevitably drawn between his presidency’s melt-down and the death spiral
upon which Yeltsin’s government is launched. More importantly, U.S. national interests
stand
to be seriously jeopardized.

– 30 –

1. See the Casey Institute’s Press Release entitled
Tilt: Heritage Panel, Casey Institute’s
Robinson Warned Last Month of Unsustainability of I.M.F.’s Russia Rescue
Effort (No. 98-R
146, 14 August 1998).

2. See the Center’s Decision Brief entitled
What Can Possibly Come of a Moscow Summit
Under These Circumstances? More Reckless U.S. Disarmament ( href=”index.jsp?section=papers&code=98-D_150″>No. 98-D 150, 24 August
1998).