Russia Escalates Tension with Ukraine

A buildup of Russian forces on Ukraine’s Eastern border prompted U.S. European command to raise the threat to “potential imminent crisis” – the highest level. This is Moscow’s latest move in a psychological warfare campaign against Ukraine.

In 2014 Russia invaded and annexed Crimea and parts of Eastern Ukraine known as the Donbass. Moscow claims Crimea has always been part of Russia. Rhetorically, the Kremlin considered the Donbass part of Ukraine but has maintained that if Ukraine was “aggressive” toward ethnic Russians in the region, Moscow would intervene. In reality, Russia was used disinformation and paramilitary forces to destabilize the region, while claiming it all came from local “self-defense units.”

The conflict came to a stalemate in 2015, mediated by Germany, but skirmishes and shelling have occurred regularly, despite tens of ceasefire agreements. Eight ceasefires have broken down since 2018 alone. The latest agreement was reached in July 2020.

Putin recognizes that European governments involved in negotiations want peace above all else, even if the price is capitulation. It is especially easy for leaders to advocate concessions that come at no direct cost to them.

For example, in July 2014, the Ukrainian army was successfully advancing into the Donbass. When what then appeared to be Russian separatists shot down Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, killing 298 passengers, Putin called Western leaders personally to urge them to stop the Ukrainian advance to avoid similar “tragedies.”

After President Volodymyr Zelensky came to power in 2019 on a platform of ending the war, he attempted to reach Putin with goodwill, charisma, and concessions.

This year, Zelensky has changed his approach.

In January Viktor Medvedchuk, a Ukrainian oligarch so close to the Kremlin that Putin is his daughter’s godfather, was fired as a hostage negotiator. Medvedchuk was a key vessel for Russia’s bidding in Ukraine and keeping the West at arm’s length.

Sergei Lavrov said in a January 18 press conference that if France and Germany could not influence their “wards in Kyiv,” they would “rearrange their actions accordingly” – likely meaning direction insertion of Russian “peacekeepers.” Putin also sent sniper units directly from Russia – not bothering with the pretense they were separatists.

In February, Ukraine sanctioned all assets and property owned by Medvedchuk and banned popular pro-Russian media outlets.A few days later, Russia started talking about a new war in the Donbas.

Since then, Russia has launched a disinformation war with two major themes: “Ukrainian massing of forces for a decisive offensive and the certainty of devastating Russian reprisals, threatening (in words that state propagandist Vladimir Solovev attributed to Putin) the survival of Ukrainian statehood,” as noted by James Sheer.

The propaganda is coupled with escalating violence, orders for Donbas separatists to launch pre-emptive strikes, an attempted large-scale cyber-attack against Ukraine targeting classified data, and driving a wedge between Kyiv, Berlin and Paris.

The Kremlin’s representative to negotiations over the conflict, Dmitry Kozak, likely leaked working drafts from the Germans and French. Kozak hoped to anger Ukraine so they would lash out at German and France and alienate themselves from the process.

Putin also got a separate meeting with Germany and France without Ukraine, which Kyiv has staunchly opposed: “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.” An agreement without Ukrainian’s involvement would draw uncomfortable comparisons to the 1938 Munich Agreement, during which Britain and France gave Hitler Czechoslovakia, as Peter Dickinson rightly points out.

On March 26, Russian snipers opened fire on Ukrainian soldiers, killing four. The mortar barrage reportedly lasted most of the day. In response, Ukraine put its forces on alert and sent reinforcements to the area.

Putin then used Ukraine’s response as evidence of the “offensive” his propagandists had been claiming for week during his March 30 meeting with Merkel and Macron.

During the meeting, “Putin emphasized the need to use influence on Kiev to make it abandon plans to stage provocations that could lead to serious consequences,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

The troop build-up is only one part of Moscow’s saber-rattling. On March 29, NATO fighter jets scrambled ten times to shadow Russian military aircraft, intercepting six groups of Russian planes near allied airspace in only six hours. Putin is also likely testing whether President Biden’s rhetoric is just that.

It is possible further hostilities will break out, and NATO should be prepared for that prospect. For now, it appears that Putin is trying to intimidate Ukraine and weaken European resolve to stand up to Russian aggression.