Sadr and Amiri Political Alliance

On Tuesday June 12^th, 2018 in Najaf, Iraq Moqtada al-Sadr and Hadi al-Amiri, the top two finishers in Iraq’s May parliamentary election announced an alliance.  The declaration is the first major step towards forming a new governing coalition.

During the announcement both Sadr and Amiri said they would allow other political blocs to join them in forming a majority government in Iraq.

Reports state that Commander Qasem Soleimani of the Iranian Quds Force, pressured Moqtada al-Sadr to forming a coalition with Hadi al-Amiri. Soleimani is the commander of the Quds Force which operates outside of the boundaries of Iran and influences and spreads the Islamic Revolution. Amiri is Iran’s closest ally having lived in Iran for many years following an exile under Saddam Hussein.

The announcement of a coalition agreement comes within days of a fire at an election ballot warehouse. The fire may have been deliberately set to destroy election records. Four suspects were arrested.

Also last week in the Sadr City neighborhood of Baghdad, an explosion rocked a mosque frequented by supporters of Muqtada al-Sadr, killing 18 and injuring 90. The cause of the explosion remains undetermined.

Sadr publicly issued calls for peace and unification within Iraq following the fire but opposed calls for a new election made by Iraqi vice-president Khodair al-Khozaei.

Sadr did not personally stand for election, despite his faction’s successful election showing. Sadr loyalists ran on a list backed by his followers as well as the Iraqi Communist Party.

The Sadr/Amiri coalition has only had 101 seats and requires 64 more to hold the majority and form a government. The Kurdistan Democratic Party along with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan have a combined 43 votes and have announced support for the coalition.  This brings the total number of votes amongst these 4 parties to 144, which is 21 votes short of the 165 needed to form a new government.

To reach the 165 votes needed to form a new coalition government the coalition could look at Abadi’s party to provide the remaining votes. Abadi has 42 votes which would give the coalition the needed number of votes to form a new government, possibly leaving Haider al-Abadi as Prime Minister. However this raises questions about whether Abadi, who has been characterized as an American ally, would be further compromised by Iranian influence.

This coalition building assumes that vote totals remain relatively constant despite an Iraqi parliament ordered recount. Abadi, despite at least public opposition to a recount from, warned that the election process was rife with serious violations of the election process and said that anyone trying to sabotage the political process will be punished.

Iranian efforts to solidify its position in Iraq are likely to continue to take advantage of sectarian and political splits within the Iraqi government. Forcing Sadr to accept a coalition with the Iranian-backed Amiri faction will significantly impact U.S. efforts in the . If Abadi joins a Sadr/Amiri coalition government and remain prime minister, while far from ideal, the United States may be able to maintain some level of influence. If Abadi is frozen out of the coalition, and a more overtly pro-Iranian prime minister is selected, the U.S.’ options may be even more limited.