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During Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on January 30, Houthi rebel forces in Yemen provocatively launched a ballistic missile at Dubai. US armed forces fired Patriot missiles at the incoming missile but apparently did not hit it.

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby later said it was Emirati surface-to-air missiles that actually engaged the targets. Initial reports said the Emiratis operated a South Korean system but the South Korean sale was only signed in January.

The UAE does have the Russian Pantsir-s1s medium-range air defense system. The UAE also has Patriot and THAAD, but if these were used to knock out the Houthi missile that would have been stated as in the past.

Similarly, if it was the Pantsir that took out the Houthi missile, it would have given bragging rights to the Russians. The UAE also has a short-range Skyknight system that is produced in-country. The SkyKnight missile system is a key component of Rheinmetall’s Skynex air defense system.

However, speculate for a moment on the possibility that it was an Israeli system operating undercover. The visit of Israel’s president was a major diplomatic event in a place squeezed between a hostile Iran and its belligerent Houthi proxy force in Yemen.

The potential security nightmare might reasonably have prompted Israel to send its own force to protect President Herzog in Dubai. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett had, in fact, offered the UAE “security and intelligence support” after an earlier attack.

The Houthis say they targeted the al-Dhafra airbase situated about 32 kilometers south of Abu Dhabi and operated by the United Arab Emirates Air Force.

That base also hosts the US Air Force 380th Air Expeditionary Wing, home to approximately 2,000 American military and civilian-military personnel operating fighter and surveillance aircraft including AWACS and UAVs.

A spate of attacks

It was the third time in recent weeks that US troops were forced into their bunkers. On January 17, the Houthis hit a fuel depot in Abu Dhabi, killing three people.

On January 24, there was a missile attack on Al-Dhafra, after which US Central Command reported that American and UAE armed forces “combined successfully” and “prevented both missiles from impacting the base.”

The most recent attack, likely by a Zulfiqar or Dezful missile, was intercepted by an Emirati air defense system. These are solid fuel rockets evolved from the Iranian Fateh-110 which are built in Iran with parts supplied by China.

Newer versions have extended the projectile’s range and improved its guidance systems. Iran ships them partially disassembled to Yemen where technicians, most likely Iranians, reassemble them and set up launch platforms.

It is unclear whether the US or the Emiratis fired first at the Houthi missile but it is clear that the two air defense systems were not coordinated. That would make sense if the Emirati system was secretly deployed.

Many of the top Israeli air defense systems, ranging from Iron Dome, David’s Sling and Arrow, were co-developed with the US. For Israel to export any of these systems, US export licenses would be needed and – so far as is known – none have been issued.

This leaves only two other major Israeli air defense systems, namely Spyder and Barak, that could be exported, as they are entirely based on indigenous technology.

During his visit, President Herzog is known to have discussed possible sales of Israeli systems to the Emirates, and that the UAE had specifically raised the possibility of the Barak missile.

Barak is a product of Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and is in production with India as the Barak-8. It has also been exported to Azerbaijan, where it successfully intercepted a Russian-made Iskandar ballistic missile during the Nagorno-Karabakh war.

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Stephen Bryen and Shoshana Bryen
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