Situation Report: Days after Western countries issue terror alerts in Kenya, a bus strikes IED

Days after the U.S. and several European countries issued terror alerts to Western nationals in Kenya, a public bus in Mandera ran over an IED. Kenyan police assume the IED that killed 8 people and injured a dozen others was placed by al-Shabaab. The Somalia-based terrorist group has carried out various large-scale attacks inside Kenya in retaliation for Nairobi’s efforts to support the African Union’s fight against jihadists.

The United States Africa Command (USAFRICOM) estimates that al-Shabaab has between 5,000-10,000 militants at its disposal. The terror group consistently uses explosive devices and suicide bombings in its attacks against civilians. In 2019, a group of al-Shabaab militants stormed a luxury hotel in Nairobi, killing 21 people during a 20-hour siege. Months later, an al-Shabaab directed truck bombing killed 84 people at a police checkpoint.

Although the group typically avoids targeting U.S. military personnel, a January 2020 attack in Manda Bay signaled a change in the group’s behavior. On January 5, a couple dozen al-Shabaab fighters infiltrated an airfield hosting U.S. DoD personnel, opening gunfire and launching rocket-propelled grenades at aircraft. One Army soldier and two Pentagon contractors were killed in the ambush, the largest number of U.S. military related deaths in Africa since 2017.

In the last month, an uptick in jihadist attacks has swept Africa and the Middle East. The Islamic State (ISIS) launched a heavily coordinated attack in Syria, aiming to free hundreds of incarcerated ISIS fighters from the Gweiran prison. The group carried out a simultaneous attack at an Iraqi army base, killing 11 soldiers. ISIS’ African affiliates have been just as deadly. The Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) has launched attacks in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Tanzania, Mozambique and Uganda.

As terror groups are resurging across the Horn of Africa, political strife and security challenges have engulfed the continent. These regional events may be undercutting joint efforts to counter the expansion of terror groups. In 2020, Ethiopia withdrew 3,000 troops from Somalia and relocated them to aid in the country’s northern Tigray war. Additionally, extremely delayed elections in Somalia contribute to societal unrest and may could potentially flare up into violence.

This week’s bus bombing attack is al-Shabaab’s most recent contribution to the escalation in terror attacks impacting the continent. In a press statement, Kenya’s National Police Service warned of an impending terror attack in the country and pledged to allocate more resources and personnel to assure the public that security will be emphasized. The French, German and Dutch missions in Nairobi issued similar warnings to its citizens in the country.

After this week’s bus bombing attack, the terror alerts issued by Western embassies and the Kenyan National Police Service seem more plausible.