Situation Report: Is Netanyahu about to be ousted?

For the past two months, Israeli politics were deadlocked as current prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu was unable to form a new coalition after the March elections.  His rivals have also thus far been unable to do so.  This follows three previous elections in which neither side was able to form a new coalition, leaving Israel’s governance in limbo under a “parenthetic” caretaker government — essentially the same as our lame duck government in a parliamentary setting, except there is no incoming government yet formed in this case.   If no new government is formed within the next several days, the parliament has a short period to vote openly on any combination as a last-ditch effort to stave off another election, but barring that, a fifth round of elections in two years would occur.

In the last several days, though, the leading opposition party (Yesh Atid under Knesset Member Yair Lapid) has been able to convince a major right-leaning party (Yamnia under Naftali Bennett) to join others in forming a national unity government.  The obstacles to this are still significant, so there is no certainty that this effort, while promising, will succeed.  If it does, Yesh Atid and Yamina would be joined by other right leaning parties — New Hope under Gideon Saar and Israel Our Home under Avigdor Lieberman.

On the left, the partners would be the old Labor Party under Meyrav Michaeli, Blue-White under Benjamin Gantz, and Meretz under Nitzan Horowitz.  That is still insufficient, so this bloc would still need to bring on board either the United Arab List (Ra’am) under Mansour Abbas or one of the two Ultra-Orthodox parties.  Both pose significant difficulties in entering, although it is more likely that Abbas will join than the Jewish religious parties.  Even so, such a coalition would be extremely narrow, so any defections would blow it apart.

While the security cabinet appears to be relatively settled, with seven members from the right-leaning parties (Gideon Saar, Naftali Bennett, Ayelet Shaqed, Avigdor Lieberman, Zeev Elkin, Matan Kahane and Yoaz Handel)  and four from the left (Yair Lapid, Benjamin Gantz, Meyrav Michaeli, and Nitzan Horowotz), the big obstacle at this point are the key slots deciding matters of the courts and justice, specifically the Justice Minister and the Chairman of the Judges Committee (which names new judges).  This is not a minor matter, since Ayelet Shaqed of Yamina and several others in the right bloc have long staked out their careers on fighting judicial overreach.  This was exacerbated lately by an astonishing Supreme Court decision that stated that its rulings need not be in reference to the Basic Law (essentially the Constitution), but transcends it and can change rule outside of it or even change the Basic Law itself. The right in Israel, and even some on the left, understand that this represents the threat of an unelected judicial tyranny.

At the moment, the key slot in this — the Judges Committee — has been promised to Meyrav Michaeli of the Labor party, who supports the Supreme Court’s overreach, but Ayelet Shaqed (herself a former Minister of Justice) may fall on her sword over this issue since it has defined her for over a decade.

Finally, there is always the possibility that a game-changer happens.  The sole reason for the right-leaning blocks to enter this government is not ideological surrender to the left, but because many staunch right-wingers believe that Netanyahu can no longer succeed in winning, and that he has become a net burden rather than strategic asset for the right.  By contrast, the supporters of Netanyahu and the left agree on one point which has governed common political wisdom for nearly two decades: that Netanyahu defines the right and embodies the attack on the increasingly detached elite establishment, so that his defeat would be a victory for the left and revival of the establishment. The defecting right-block members admit that the left/Netanyahu perception had been true until recently, but that the political era and Netanyahu’s credibility has passed and a new right-leaning leadership is needed now for the right block to align itself more closely with the rapidly changing populist mood in Israel, which shows every sign of turning even further right. As such, if for any reason Netanyahu bows out or goes into retirement, the lone obstacle for a sudden right-wing block’s forming a coalition is removed and a strong majority right-leaning government could emerge with about 75 of 120 seats in parliament. Until, of course, until the struggle begins over who will lead this new right-wing block.

Netanyahu is already facing a serious challenge within his Likud party.  If the party is forced to go into opposition, it is quite possible Netanyahu could face a swelling pile-up against him, causing a sort of bubble-burst. And even if Likud is not in opposition, it is impossible for Netanyahu to form a collation under himself any more.  So his days as prime minister are numbered in the single or double digits, and absolutely not later than by mid-November — which could only happen if no new government is formed and the fifth round of elections happen (almost certainly in October) when even this lame duck government must change its premiership to Benjamin Gantz.

Even if such a unity government is stood up, it should be seen as a transitional government.  It cannot survive its first major crisis — which is sure to come within months, whether domestic, security, diplomatic or Iran — since it is a Frankenstein monster made of up of too many parts in basic tension with each other.  For example, an eruption of the Gaza war or an attack on Iran, which could easily trigger a Hizballah war, would make it nearly impossible for Mansour Abbas to remain in the coalition.  Any peace initiative by the United States would split the right and left sides of this government irreparably.

But then again, the purpose of this government is not to govern, but to move the nation beyond Netanyahu under conflicting beliefs: for the left, only by removing Netanyahu will the left again be competitive, and for the right because only under new leadership could the right top the emerging populism and again dominate.