Skepticism Remains Over South Sudan’s Peace Ending the Civil War

On April 29, 2016, representatives from the  United States (U.S.), United Kingdom (U.K), and Norway welcomed the long awaited South Sudan’s transitional government on national unity.  Global powers also knowingly put two volatile opponents back in power together in a means to bring peace and unity.

Civil War broke out in South Sudan in December 2013 when President Salva Kiir claimed Vice President Riek Machar was trying to overthrow him. Silva arrested a number of senior cabinet members and Machar, who claimed  Kiir was autocratic, fled the capital.  Machar formed the rebel resistance the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO). Rebel factions seize control of several towns throughout South Sudan, thousands are killed and even more are displaced, Ugandan troops are deployed to assist President Kiir.

An initial cease-fire was agreed to in January 2014 but was broken several times due to ongoing violence and further discussions failed to achieve an end to the violence. By April 2014 more than one million South Sudanese were displaced. Machar has committed treason against South Sudan according to Kiir when Machar forces killed hundreds of civilians when they raided the town on Bentiu. By July 2014 the UN noted that the food crisis in South Sudan was the worst in the world.

Initial peace talks took place as part of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in Ethiopia’s capital of Addis Abada in August 2014, but the constant fighting and mass humanitarian efforts stalled the process. By February 2015, officials announced June elections would be canceled due to the extreme violence. Reports from Unicef indicate there may be as many as 12,000 child soldiers being used in the conflict.

North Sudan President Omar al-Bashir called for all African leaders to recognize the peace process and leadership in South Sudan while he had instigated the destruction of villages and crops by refusing to pay the Janjaweed militia and in turn they ransacked villages and farms. Al-Bashir was known to have supplied Machar rebels with weapons which rebel forced denied claiming they took weapons from dead or captured SPLA soldiers. Al-Bashir was also most likely more concerned with Sudan’s oil production that runs through pipelines in South Sudan than he was over the escalating violence.

One year after initial peace Talks President Kiir reluctantly signs an internationally-mediated peace deal that will allow Riek Machar to return to South Sudan. Despite an initial peace deal tensions remained high as a FreeFire blog pointed out that rebel commanders began to go rogue and threatened both Machar and Silva if any peace deal was signed.

By March 2016, Reuters reported that 10,000 South Sudanese had been killed since the Civil War started. Kiir and Machar meet with representatives from the African Union (AU) and claimed they had developed a roadmap for peace in the region. One of the groups strangely absent from the peace talks was the U.S. who was a major facilitator in South Sudanese independence in 2011. The Obama Administration was also a major backer of the  Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), which became the country’s government.

Concerns over peace were abundant by many African leaders especially over allowing the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (SPML) operating side-by-side.  Machar noted that he would bring in heavy weapons and 200 of his own troops, which would violate the transitional security agreements, governing the amount of government and opposition troops in the capital. The Kiir government relented and allowed Machar to bring in select weapons so the peace process could be completed.

On April 26, 2016, Machar along with his Chief of General Staff Simon Gatwack returned to South Sudan capital of Juba. Soon after arriving Machar was sworn in as vice president in accordance to last August’s peace deal.

Kiir and Machar are calling for cooperation, reconciliation, and peaceful co-existence between north and south Sudan. Kerr and Machar stated that the fighting has to stop, the economic crisis needs to be addressed, and they need to fall in line with the United Nations (UN) and humanitarian rights organizations. The UN’s Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon called the efforts of Silva and Machar in the peace process a “milestone” for all of Sudan and ends a 21-month peace process.

While the free world may look at the unity government in Sudan as a sign of progress, the biggest skeptics may be the South Sudanese people. With massive death tolls, excessive violations of human rights, and over a million displaced there is very little to celebrate.