Some Initial Thoughts on North Korea’s Latest Nuclear Test

Early today, North Korea conducted its sixth and most powerful nuclear test.   North Korea claims this was a test of an H-bomb that can be placed on an ICBM.  Based on seismic data, early estimates put this test’s yield at 50 to 120 kilotons.  Some experts claim the yield may have been 1 megaton (1,000 kilotons), although this estimate seems to be an outlier.

Concerning the yield of this test, there will be a wide range of estimates because it is difficult to accurately assess a nuclear test’s yield using only remotely-collected seismic data due to a variety of unknown variables such as depth of the test, the nature of the rock that the seismic wave traveled through and the degree to which the device was coupled to rock.

While this was much a more powerful nuclear test, I doubt North Korea has mastered the complex technology to construct a hydrogen bomb.  I also agree with several experts  who believe the so-called H-bomb that Kim posed with was probably a crude model.  Its worth noting that North Korea also boasted about testing an H-bomb in January 2016.  

I believe this nuclear device was probably a boosted-fission nuclear bomb which used a small fusion reaction to significantly increase the bomb’s fission reaction.  North Korea might inaccurately call such a device an H-bomb.  

The radioactive gas Argon-37 is a telltale sign of an H-bomb test.  If U.S. “air sniffer” planes and other testing stations detect this gas, an H-bomb test could be confirmed.  North Korea appears to have successfully contained the release of such gases in most of its prior nuclear tests.  However, the size of this test and the possibility that it created a crater may mean that radioactive gases were released which will allow international experts to determine the nature of this nuclear test.  

Finally, this nuclear test probably was greatly embarrassing to China, especially since Chinese  President Xi was scheduled to meet with Russian President Putin in Beijing today.  This may allow the passage of much harsher UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea such as an oil embargo and cutting the North off from the international financial system.  The United States also must consider sanctioning Chinese banks and other entities that have been violating existing UN sanctions on North Korea.