Syrian Southern Front Presses Assad, as Iran Doubles Down

The Southern Front, an alliance of opposition militias, claim to have seized the al-Thaala airbase in Southern Syria, according to Maj. Issam al-Rayyes. The Southern Front includes the Syria Revolutionaries’ Front and the Yarmouk Brigade, both groups have both clashed with Jabhat Al Nusra, albeit unsuccessfully, but also fought alongside them, in the past.

The leader of Yarmouk Brigade, Bashar al-Zoubi, has stated rebels successfully shot down a regime military jet outside the base. Both claims have been rejected by the Assad regime, claiming the state’s forces have successfully stopped three attacks led by the opposition on the base. Videos have surfaced which appear to show some kind of plane crashing but they have not been authenticated.

The captured airbase comes as the second Syrian military installation successfully seized by Syrian opposition forces this week. On Tuesday, opposition fighters grasped control of an army base, known as the home of the Syrian 52^nd Brigade, in the city of Daraa. Again, videos surfaced showing the rebels inside the base, the second largest base in southern Syria that Assad’s regime had still controlled. Since March, the regime has progressively been losing much of the country’s territory to rebels and jihadists, such as members of the Islamic State IS had allied with the Nusra Front to seize nearly all of northern Syria, and recently seized the key city of Palmyra.

As IS, al-Nusra and the Southern Front continue to seize territory, worries of battles for territory are looming. The Southern Front has announced its disapproval for al-Nusra’s ideology. Intelligence analysts claim that The Southern Front is the strongest group in southern Syria, however the only reason that remains true is because they are the only group with a strong presence in the south. IS showed their interest in the southern region earlier this spring when they attempted to seize an air base in the southern Sweida province of Syria. Thus, once either IS or al-Nusra begin a major assault on southern Syria, It seems unlikely that the Southern Front will successfully fending off them off.

As the Southern Front advances closer to Damascus, some Western policy makers, including officials attending a recent G7 meeting raised the question of whether the setback may be enough to force supporters of the regime to abandon Assad and discuss a political settlement.  But Assad’s desperation may be eased by the Iranians, who have recently announced renewed support for Assad. Iran has already supplied some $6 Billion a year propping up Assad, and, despite Iranian denial, the Iranian government has recently deployed and additional 15,000 troops. IRGC leaders have urged the Iranian Basij militia forces to volunteer to travel to Syria to fight.

Syrian rebels and jihadists forces continue to press Assad, but with continued Iranian support, it’s unlikely the fighting will end any time soon.