The Regional and International Responses to the Seizure of Kirkuk

A variety of regional and international actors are weighing in on the October 16^th seizure of oil-rich Kirkuk province by Iraqi security forces and Shia militia.  The territory is one of the many disputed regions between the central government in Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in Northern Iraq.

Kurdish forces have also retreated from other disputed territories such as Sinjar and territories that are close to the Iranian border.

The current situation in Iraq came to a head following KRG’s independence referendum on September 25th, which  overwhelmingly favored Kurdish independence.

Iran, Turkey, the central government in Baghdad, as well as the United States were opposed to the referendum before it occurred, however, each have varying reactions toward the seizure of Kirkuk.

Iran has held a particular role in the Iraqi advancement into Kirkuk though the PMF. The PMF or Hashid al-Shaabi  is a conglomeration of Iraqi militias, which is backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Iran’s primary military force. The IRGC was recently designated a terrorist organization by the United States due to their terror funding to Hezbollah and other groups.

Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said in a statement that it was his “duty to work in accordance with the constitution to serve the citizens and protect the unity of the country” by advancing into Kirkuk as well as other disputed territories.

On October 17^th PM al-Abadi appointed a new Interim Governor  Rakan Ali al-Jabouri, who is an Arab, to replace the ousted Kurdish governor, Najmaldin Karim.

The Prime Minister also ordered on October 18^th the withdrawal of all armed groups including the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and called for turning over security to “the control of the local police with the support of counter-terrorism units.”

Turning over control to the police services remains a concerning option, given that regional police are forced to rely on the Iraqi ministry of interior for funds and support.

The head of Iraq’s Ministry of the Interior Qasim Mohammad Jalal al-Araji, is a part of the Badr Organization which is a wing of the PMF. He received his formal military training through the IRGC, after being captured by Iran during the Iran-Iraq war in 1984.

Local police in Kirkuk have claimed dissatisfaction with the Ministry of the Interior, claiming the Baghdad based government failed to provide support for Kirkuk police during efforts to combat the Islamic State.

Iraq’s neighbors and the United States are also responding to the recent military activity in Kirkuk.

Turkey also responded to the advance on Kirkuk on October 16^th saying it would keep its airspace closed to Iraq’s semi-autonomous northern Kurdish region.

The Deputy Prime Minister of Turkey Bekir Bozdag stated that the government decided to work with the Iraqi central government for secure the handover of the Ibrahim Khalil (Habur) border gate from the KRG to Baghdad.

The Prime Minister of Turkey Binali Yildirim warned that those who insisted on holding the referendum for independence from Iraq “should pay the price,” but also said that Turkey has no problems with the Kurdish people of Northern Iraq.

Turkey and Iraq launched a military drill before the Sept. 25 referendum along the Turkish-Iraqi border, which was interpreted as preparation to take control of the border gate from the hands of the KRG.

Iran and Iraq also conducted joint military exercises along the north-eastern border of the country following the referendum on October 2^nd. Baghdad demanded that the KRG relinquish control over its external border crossings with Turkey and Iran, as well as handing airports over to federal control.

The United States did not support the KRG’s decision to hold a referendum, however did urge the Iraqi government to avoid the use of force.

The Department of Defense also made a statement from the Operation Inherent Resolve which has focused on efforts in Iraq, said that “they were aware of reports of a limited exchange of fire during Oct. 16 and believed the engagement was a misunderstanding and not deliberate as two elements attempted to link up under limited visibility conditions.”

The DoD also made clear that their focus is attempting to downplay tensions within Iraq while moving forward in efforts to destroy the Islamic State.

Recently members of Congress have been vocal on the loss of the Kirkuk from the KRG. Arms Services Committee Chair Senator John McCain (R-AZ) made a statement stating that he was deeply concerned  by the Iraqi advances of the government forces on the Kurdish people.

Congressman Steve King (R-IA) also denounced the U.S. State Department’s claim that the Kurdish referendum lacked “legitimacy” and described the U.S. as missing out on a historic opportunity to strengthen American efforts to combat Islamic terrorism in the region.

Official U.S. policy continues to support a unified Iraq,  despite the role of Kurdish forces as the U.S.’ ally against Islamic terrorism.

Tension is also escalating between the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) over the fall of the city.

President Barzani stated that he wants to prevent a Kurdish civil war following the events of Monday. The president said in a statement,  “they want to drag us into a civil war, but we will in no way be doing this” referring to the Iraqi central government.

The Peshmerga general command on Monday blamed the fall of Kirkuk on “a historic treason” committed by some PUK commanders. The PUK, which controlled Kirkuk province, rejected the accusations that their troops surrendered Kirkuk instead blaming the decision of the KDP to go ahead with the Referendum despite the opposition from Baghdad, Turkey, Iran and the United States.

Iran has held ties as well as  influence over the PUK, due to its geographically proximity with Sulaymaniyah, the Kurdish territory on the border with Iran. Iran helped support the PUK fighters during the Kurdish civil war that occurred in the 1990s against the then Turkish-backed KDP.

The PUK in the past has also held talks with Iran about building a pipeline to export oil from the Sulymaniyah province. As the Kurds have been continually disappointed by its ally the United States, there is more inclination for some Kurds to align with Iran for economic and military support.

With reactions from all regional and international players, the Kurds are going to have to reorganize and establish cooperation between the two main parties if they hope to regain their contested territories or continue to pursue independence.