Tikrit Offensive Setbacks Raise Questions About Effort for Mosul

Iraqi government forces, together with a small number of Sunni tribesmen and large numbers (20k+) of Iranian-led Shia militia forces (euphemistically described as “popular mobilization forces“) continue to press against the Islamic State-held city of Tikrit, in Salahuddin province, best known as Saddam Hussein’s home town, and one of the points of the infamous “Sunni Triangle”.

Despite repeated claims to be near completion of the operation, including that the Islamic State was near “total collapse,” as forces prepared a “Final push“, the reality is that the Iraqi government and its allies have faced multiple setbacks. These have been blamed on aggressive use of “House-borne” improvised explosive devices, a tactic that should have come as no surprise, as it mirrors those used by Islamic State’s predecessor, Al Qaeda in Iraq.

Now reports are coming in that the attack has “stalled”, due to a lack of urban warfare training among the besieging force, and an effort to avoid additional casualties. Reports have indicated that casualty rates may already be as high as 40-60 a day. It’s unclear how the current proposed delay will help reduce casualties, unless the Iraqis begin to receive U.S close air support, which has not been forthcoming due to concerns of Iran’s involvement and the nature of the sectarian militias.

The high body count of the operation raises concerns that the Shia militias will be difficult to restrain if and when they do  take the city. The Shia militias have already been credibly accused of engaging in war crimes, beheadings and sectarian targeted killings in the lead up to the Tikrit operation. Phillip Smyth, an analyst who specializes in Shia militias, described atrocities being displayed by Shia forces:

“It’s important to remember that many of these same militia groups pioneered putting power drills through people’s heads, had reportedly carried out extensive ethnic cleansing operations, ran/run secret prisons, and even posed as homosexuals online to lure Iraqi gays in and murder them,” he adds. “These are elements which brutally and swiftly employ violence for an end goal.”

The ultimately resolution in taking Tikrit will greatly impact the future effort to retake Mosul. Mosul is a larger city, (with a pre-conflict population of 1.5 million, compared to Tikrit’s 280,000), and Islamic State’s most important holding in Iraq. If the Iraqi army and its the Sunni tribal auxiliaries are not up for retaking Tikrit, they are certainly not prepared for the front and center role they will need to play in liberating Mosul. If Iraq retakes Tikrit thanks entirely to an Iranian-led Shia militia “meat grinder” offensive, they will be even more dependent on the militias, and thus Iran.

Such a result could be the worst possible outcome; tightening Iran’s grip on Iraq, while at the same time possibly strengthening Islamic state in the crucial battle to come in Mosul.