Turks in the middle

In a new op-ed today, Center President Frank Gaffney argues that the outcome of Turkey’s parliamentary decision not to allow U.S. forces to use Turkish bases for an invasion of Iraq threatens to drive a wedge between Turkey and its most important Western ally: the United States. Naturally, there is little likelihood that Ankara would get the more than $15 billion the Bush team had offered in direct loans and grants, let alone the billions more that might have come in indirect aid and guarantees. Turkey desperately needs such assistance to cope with the lingering, devastating effects on its economy of the last Persian Gulf war and to cushion it from the costs of the next one.

These are likely, however, to pale compared with the untoward strategic consequences of a lasting rupture in U.S.-Turkish relations. Most immediately, Turkey’s interests in post-Saddam Iraq could be harmed. Pre-eminent among these is its concern that the destruction of totalitarian rule in Baghdad will advance Kurdish aspirations for autonomy or even statehood.

Over the longer term, though, such a rupture could precipitate a most undesirable transformation from a Turkey that is a cornerstone of Western security and a model of stable, secular democracy in the Muslim world to one that is squarely in our enemies’ camp. Already, Islamists have come to power — in part on the strength of nationalist sympathies inflamed by European rejection of Turkey’s bid to become even a candidate for EU membership; in part out of disgust with the incompetence and corruption of a succession of governments run by non-Islamist politicians.

Consequently, the right answer for Turkey, for the United States and for their shared interests, is to have the Turkish parliament swiftly reconsider its vote and approve the resolution by the required majority. At this writing, such a decision seems not only possible but, according to Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis, in prospect.

If the revote is held and the government’s resolution passes, it will be the product of courageous and visionary leadership that runs counter to the vocal wishes of many Turks. The result will, however, augur well for the future, not only of the looming campaign to liberate Iraq but for a Turkey that remains firmly anchored in the West and that will deserve, and should receive, the consideration — political, economic and strategic — to which it will thereby be entitled.