While the U.S. has been focused on preparing for the kinetic warfare battlefield, China has been registering big wins on the political warfare battlefield. You can see it all over the Pacific Islands.
Saipan
Exactly 79 years ago, on 9 July 1944, the American military secured the island of Saipan—a key component of Imperial Japan’s defence plan. Tens of thousands died in the battle, and the island was devastated.
Then it was rebuilt for war—with a massive effort to put in runways. Saipan and the neighboring island of Tinian, were soon among the busiest airports in the world, as waves of B-29s took off to bomb Japan—which was now in range—and markedly fewer B-29s returned.
On the top of Mount Tapochau, the highest point on the island, you can still see the scars seared in by the war. And from Mount Topachau, you can see the mismatched battlefield of the current cold war.
Out on the horizon, anchored off Saipan, are three U.S. Navy prepositioning ships, fully stocked and ready to respond to war and disaster. The kids of Saipan know that if they suddenly disappear from the horizon, something bad has probably happened. Yes, they respond to natural disasters, but they are also there, waiting, for “kinetic” conflict—a shooting war.
Meanwhile, also from Mount Tapochau, you can see the downtown hub of Garapan. The biggest building in downtown, by far, is the not quite finished massive Imperial Palace casino, backed by Chinese investors. Currently closed and being liquidated, the casino has wreaked havoc on the politics and economy of Saipan. And it’s still not over.
LOOKING AT THE WRONG BATTLEFIELD
While the U.S. has been focused on preparing for the kinetic warfare battlefield, China has been registering big wins, largely unopposed (except perhaps occasionally by its own corruption and ineptitude), on the political warfare battlefield.
You can see it all over the Pacific Islands—not coincidentally the zone of some of the most vicious fighting of World War II. Geography means that any Pacific Asian country that wants to project its power, must first contain or control this area.
The Chinese Communist Party knows this history. It is targeting the same deep ports, strategic airfields, and resources the Japanese did, but they are doing it through political warfare, while the US looks for kinetic signals.
For example, in May, the United States made what seemed to be big gain on the kinetic front, when a defence deal was agreed with Papua New Guinea (PNG). Less noticed was that, in June, PNG Prime Minister James Marape presented a reciprocal visa waiver agreement with China to Parliament, saying: “This reciprocal visa waiver agreement is a significant step towards enhancing business and tourism potential between China and Papua New Guinea.”
Not long after that, two officials from the USINDOPACOM’s Center for Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance did not obtain visas to participate in a PNG-approved disaster response exercise. This has echoes of the US Coast Guard ships on illegal fisheries patrols not being able to obtain entry to Solomon Islands or Vanuatu ports.
All are hits to the US on the political warfare front—blocking them out of working with allies, building trust and bolstering relationships. It’s below the kinetic threshold so it barely registers in Washington, but it’s a win for China (and a loss for the people of those countries who want both more humanitarian assistance and help with illegal fisheries).
It’s almost as if the US is colour blind and can’t see the countries being painted red—it at best talks of things getting a bit more grey (zone).
CENTRALITY OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
An area where the stakes for the US (and those who believe in a free and open Indo-Pacific) of getting it wrong are especially high is the Central Pacific. Included in the Central Pacific are two parts of the United States—Guam and the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), of which Saipan is a part.
Also included are three island nations, stretching from west to east—Republic of Palau, Federated States of Micronesia, and Republic of Marshall Islands—that occupy an area about as large as the continental United States. This is strategic geography by any standard.
Starting nearly 40 years ago, each of those three independent nations entered into a “Compact of Free Association” (COFA) with the US. These countries are known collectively as the Freely Associated States (FAS).
These complex agreements, currently being renegotiated, provide the three countries with financial and other assistance—to include the right of their citizens to live and work in the United States. Washington also undertook responsibility for the nations’ defence, to include the right to prevent any foreign military presence in each of the COFA states.
The deep relationship between the US and the FAS is considered such a given, unimpeded access has been an unspoken assumption in US defence plans for decades.
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