What the US should do about Taiwan

Words from Washington are not enough as Chinese warplanes step up their provocative incursions into Taiwan’s airspace

No one can doubt that China is very close to attacking Taiwan. The latest incursion of 52 warplanes on Monday, which included 36 fighters and 12 nuclear bombers plus surveillance aircraft, was much more than just a demonstration.

Taiwan so far has exercised restraint, putting its F-16s and other aircraft into the sky to challenge Chinese incursions into its air defense zone (ADIZ) but not firing on the intruding aircraft. But if a mistake happens, it will end up a bloody mess.

The US State Department had issued a strong statement condemning China’s violations of Taiwan’s ADIZ even before China responded by sending in 52 warplanes on Monday. It appears that China does not take Washington seriously and doesn’t care at all what the State Department says.

Is Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman General Mark Milley calling his counterparts in China and telling them not to worry? It is a fair question, although he probably hasn’t. On the other hand, the Pentagon is far from ready to take on China and won’t push the White House to do anything.

The Pentagon’s reluctance is based on a number of war games and simulations that suggest in any conflict with China, the US will be defeated. So even if President Biden asks, it is likely he will get a lot of pushback from the Defense Department, particularly from the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

On the other hand, if Taiwan were to fall to China without US intervention, Biden’s presidency, already tottering, would likely collapse. Biden would have to resign and Vice President Kamala Harris would become president, unless she is also forced to step aside. No one has any idea of what would happen in such a scenario.

Along with the loss of Taiwan and the high human cost, the US would also lose access to vital integrated circuits that support its high-tech and automobile industries and defense manufacturing. The entire mess could be a big blow to the US and global economy, and lead to upheavals everywhere, including in China.

One result, to be dreaded, might be the establishment of military-run governments in many affected countries, even the United States and almost certainly in China.

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