Yemeni Civil War Provides Perfect Cover For AQAP Expansion

Reuters reports that Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP) has reclaimed the Yemeni city of Azzan. AQAP reestablished control of the town after being ousted by local tribesmen and armed residents loyal to the government in May, 2012.

By taking Azzan, AQAP adds to the territory it controls in Yemen. The Long War Journal reports that AQAP controls the Shabwa, Abyan, and Hadramount provinces. The group also secured several neighborhoods in the city of Aden, an important port city and the new home of the Yemeni government.

Azzan served as a major commercial city to Yemen. It also serves as a crossroads between Aden and the oil and gas-rich Hadramaount province, where another major port city Mukalla, also controlled by AQAP, is located. By reclaiming Azzan, AQAP puts itself in a better position to move against Aden.

AQAP has been able to maintain control of entire Yemeni provinces due to the current civil war, which began when the Yemeni government was pushed out of the capital, Sanaa, in September 2014 by the Houthis, a Shiite rebel group backed by Iran.  In response to the Houthi move, a Saudi-led coalition, along with government forces of Yemen, began an operation to roll the Shiite rebel group back.

With the Saudi coalition and Yemeni government forces focusing on the Houthis, AQAP has been able to capture territory with minimal resistance. This lack of resistance has also allowed AQAP to set up their own forms of government, and imposing sharia law on their controlled territory.

While AQAP has seen little resistance from the government, they have begun to feel pressure from a growing Islamic State (IS) presence. In early 2015, the two groups engaged each other in Yemen’s eastern provinces over contested territory. Aside from these early engagements, the two groups have remained focused on fighting the Shiite Houthis. Katherine Zimmerman from the American Enterprise Institute believes that if IS begins to dominate the fight against the Houthis, it may drive AQAP to “attack Western targets or increase funding to anti-Houthi militias.”

Even prior to the civil war and AQAP’s most recent advances, the U.S campaign to target AQAP faced substantial challenges. The group has been targeting the Yemeni government for years, and has been largely undaunted by targeted killings directed at their leadership.

The U.S. has backed the Saudi coalition in Yemen despite ambivalence towards the high civilian casualties caused by Saudi air strikes.

The Obama Administration’s new relationship  with Iran and subsequent falling out with the Saudi kingdom has limited U.S. influence over the Saudi aggressive air campaign. The withdrawal of U.S. military and intelligence operations from Yemen following the Houthi take over has hampered the U.S. effort to target AQAP.  Without forces of their own, and with the Saudi government focused on the Iranian threat, the U.S. has limited options as AQAP continues to strengthen itself and plot for future attacks.