Argentina changes course: what’s next in runoff elections

After the shock upset in the October 25th elections, in which conservative candidate Mauricio Macri obtained 34% of the vote and forced a runoff against President Cristina Kirchner’s candidate Daniel Scioli, who finished with 36%, Argentinians will head to the polls on November 22nd to choose their next president.  On opposite sides of the ideological spectrum, Macri and Scioli will both be furiously courting supporters of third-place finisher Sergio Massa, who broke with Kirchner over a political feud and has hinted at supporting Macri in the runoff.

Argentina is in the midst of a financial crisis, brought on by a debt default in 2002.  A New York federal court judge has ordered payment of $1.3 billion to hedge funds that bought Argentinian government bonds, which Kirchner and Scioli have rejected, calling instead for a reduced amount and deriding the funds as “vultures.”  Macri, on the other hand, has stated that the debt should be paid and government spending reduced, alleging that the populist model followed by Kirchner and endorsed by Scioli has led to widespread poverty, inflation, and denied opportunities to college graduates, who have emigrated in record numbers in the past ten years.

Scioli, on the other hand, accuses Macri of following the “failed neo-liberal model” that led to Argentina’s default and of being a rich businessman out of touch with the common folk. The runoff campaign has turned negative as most polls show Macri having an advantage.  Scioli’s association with Kirchner may be hurting his standing, as most Argentinians are convinced she played a role in the death of prosecutor Alberto Nisman, who was found dead hours before he was to publicly reveal evidence he collected linking Kirchner to Iran over the 1994 bombing of the Jewish Community Center in Buenos Aires and subsequent investigation.

With a conciliatory message aimed at the independents and Massa’s supporters, Macri is counting on the Argentinian’s public fatigue with scandals and political acrimony to propel him to victory.  Meanwhile, Scioli is hyping up fears of a currency devaluation and cuts to social welfare programs to preserve the populist regime in power.  It is clear that Argentina is clamoring for change after 12 years of “Kirchnerism,” yet Macri will need more support from the center-left in order to overcome the electoral odds, which he has already done when virtually no one expected him to do so.