CSP experts weigh in on Russian invasion of Ukraine

Frank Gaffney, Chairman:

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a crisis, but it is a symptom and the first large-scale manifestation of a much larger problem. The way the Biden administration has handled this crisis assures there will be more.

Vladimir Putin, a dangerous despotic thug, has calculated that he can act aggressively and with complete impunity. Not only did we not deter him from that belief before he attacked, but in the aftermath, we have not appreciably changed his calculation. The problem is there are other despotic thugs who have been enthusiastically watching this and who are similarly calculating that they too can act with impunity. If we continue to reinforce that calculation, we are going to see, possibly on a global basis, aggression, subversion, and other efforts to accomplish the “not-so-great reset,” which amounts to a new world order to the liking of these thugs and at our great expense in the free world.

What prompted Putin to act was his decades long desire to restore the greatness of Russia. If not the Soviet Union, the Russian empire, and to get even with NATO and most especially the United States for their roles in what he calls the greatest catastrophe of the 20^th century, namely the take down of the Soviet Union. Seen from that perspective, what has made this event come to pass was not a real concern about Ukraine joining NATO or Ukraine becoming a threat to Russia, but this was a window of opportunity, to act on longstanding ambitions and settle scores. Putin’s assessment of the Biden team and the correlation of forces as the Soviets used to say, including the cumulative effect of decades of war that has hollowed out the military of the United States, the European dependence on Russia for energy, the alignment between Russia and the Chinese Communist Party, all combine to make this moment irresistible to a guy like Putin. And we’re likely to see more in the future.

Stephen Bryen, Senior Fellow:

Now that Russia has attacked Ukraine it is not clear how it will end.  But it is clear that the Russians did not get the two things they wanted: a settlement of the Donbas issue as promised in the Minsk Accords, and an agreement to keep NATO out of Ukraine.  It is unfortunate that the Biden administration encouraged the Ukrainians to resist a Donbas settlement and encouraged NATO to move toward extending the alliance to Ukraine.  The Russians saw the U.S. as provoking the Ukraine crisis, and the Ukrainians as unwilling to work toward a settlement based on U.S. support, including supplies of weapons and training.  Now we are faced undeniably with horror and a mess, and finding a way out seems difficult, if not impossible.  The only way forward, I believe, is for the U.S. instead of manufacturing sanctions, to try and find a way to broker some sort of settlement.  Right now, the political atmosphere and Russian aggression mitigates against that approach, but that doesn’t invalidate it.  The big risk is that the Russians manufacture an excuse to attack NATO installations in eastern Europe, provoking a terrible and bloody global conflict. Some smart leaders need to talk sense into Biden, Blinken and others, but where are they?

Kyle Shideler, Director and Senior Analyst for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism:

The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine is a reminder of the limits of so-called soft power. For decades the U.S. operated on the assumption that bringing adversaries into the international order, including by integrating them into the international trade regime at the expense of our own domestic capabilities, could serve as a deterrent superior to that of actual force. The U.S. and our European allies’ efforts to integrate Russia into the economy now leave us vulnerable in vital industries including oil/ natural gas, chemical fertilizer, heavy metals, and other manufacturing materials, and weaken the credibility of a sanctions option. This situation could get even worse if China, which has cooperated with Russia at all stages of this crisis, were to take action of its own.

Additionally, the U.S. has largely failed to seriously address the need to harden our own homeland, leaving us vulnerable to a variety of threats in the event of escalation, including but not limited to cyberwarfare attacks against critical infrastructure, including telecommunications and the power grid. The invasion of Ukraine should be a reminder to U.S. officials, at the federal, state, and local levels, that resilience and civil defense must not be relics of a bygone era, particularly as Americans will feel the pinch on their own lives in the form of higher gas and food prices, and other disruptions.

Lastly, the Biden Administration’s divisive politicization of intelligence and counterterrorism authorities, and the years-long “Russian collusion hoax” has eroded national unity and confidence in America’s national security practitioners. It is this divisiveness which opens opportunities for foreign adversaries to conduct subversion and active measures campaigns that erode American willpower and cause further disunity and distress. Ultimately national security starts at home, and it begins with being a nation which is self-reliant, resilient, and capable of providing for itself and its economy, and whose people are prepared to address all potential threats.

Airline emergency announcements warn you to put on your oxygen mask before attempting to help others. Similarly, now is the time for the U.S. to begin the hard work of these homeland challenges without delay so that it can be prepared for a tough, gritty but more realist future.

Grant Newsham, Senior Fellow:

China is watching closely and taking notes.  Indeed, if the US and Western response to the Ukraine invasion is seen as weak or ineffective, and ultimately accepts the Russian seizure of Ukraine as a fait accompli — rather than using force and fierce economic and financial pressure to completely isolate Russia and render it a pariah state, China will feel emboldened to move against Taiwan.

The Chinese communists have always been dead serious when they say they will take Taiwan.  Beijing would prefer to use intimidation to bring Taiwan to heel, but it is prepared to use violence and military means to subjugate the Taiwanese.

Uncertainty about the American response is what has deterred the PRC to date.  But Beijing increasingly thinks America lacks the means and, as importantly, the will to defend Taiwan and to fight the Chinese military.

Ukraine is a case study for the Chinese leadership and if Putin gets away with invading and taking over another country, you can bet China will make its move against Taiwan and follow a similar playbook.

And don’t forget the effect of American and Free World fecklessness over Ukraine on Taiwan and its citizens.  This is demoralizing and reduces their will to resist by raising fears that Taiwan really is alone.

The PRC will quietly support Russia’s assault on Ukraine no matter what vague, moderate, sounding language Chinese officials and diplomats use calling for negotiations, etc.  And the Chinese media has been told to avoid criticizing Russia.  In return, China expects Russia to provide cover when the PRC sets out to solve the Taiwan problem once and for all.

When will China make its move?  I think they will wait a while and see how Ukraine plays out.  This will take some months.  But China will keep the heat on Taiwan in the meantime, and my guess is that if the Biden administration and the EU ‘fail’ over Ukraine, China will decide to move against Taiwan anytime from 2023 onwards.

This is the most dangerous international situation since World War II.  The totalitarians and dictators are emboldened and feel they have the upper hand over the USA and the free nations.  And they are willing to kill to get what they want.

If a country — a UN Security Council member no less — is allowed to invade and take over a neighboring independent country, the PRC will think it has a ‘green light’ against Taiwan.

We are in for the fight of our lives.  The outcome?  Very much in doubt unless America’s ruling class wakes up fast.

Hany Ghoraba, Senior Fellow:

 Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is an aggregate of feckless leadership by President Biden over the past year. Putin sensed the weakness in Biden’s decisions starting from the shambolic withdrawal from Afghanistan to the lack of proper response to the Chinese ambitions of annexing Taiwan.  Putin had his eyes on Ukraine for years but he couldn’t take such moves during President Trump’s administration.

That said, Putin’s gamble will not yield the desired outcome unless he is allowed to expand his invasion unchallenged. Slamming Russia with tough economic and diplomatic sanctions should be just the beginning of a new series of diplomatic and political activities that reshapes the global political theater in order prevent such potential global war from igniting as well as such invasions from occurring again in the future.

If Putin’s invasion is not met with adequate resolve and firmness, China will aim to replicate the same sort of invasion in Taiwan within a short period.

This is the most critical political crisis in decades and if firmness is not shown, the world will be engulfed by chaos and wars within a very short period.

Christopher Holton, Director of State Outreach:

The manner in which Biden fled Afghanistan and the obvious cognitive limitations of this president played a major role in Putin’s decision to move now. He has coveted the former Soviet republics for some time. He chose to act now for a reason.

Dalia al-Aqidi, Senior Fellow:

The decision to invade Ukraine was not a product of the moment but is the result of political and security calculations, which means that Putin has prepared himself, his country’s economy, and his people to face all consequences. The new sanctions came late, and the U.S. reaction was not equivalent to the Russian invasion

When was the last time sanctions deterred authoritarian and totalitarian regimes? Not in Iraq, Iran, North Korea, and even Russia itself.

The capital Kyiv will fall, thousands of innocent people will be killed, a government loyal to Moscow will be established, democracy will be subject to the rule of barbarians, and President Biden needs a month for the effects of the sanctions to even start.

The people of Ukraine will not last one week to confront the Russian military arsenal. Meanwhile, and until 2024, we will keep speculating which country will Putin invade next?

Tommy Waller, Director of Infrastructure Security:

Americans should understand that Russia not only threatens Ukraine and Europe, but all of us here at home. Russia’s cyber capability to attack our critical infrastructures, especially the electric grid, could bring the conflict home to the American people in an instant.

For this reason, we recently published this report to encourage local planners to prepare themselves for the very real and present danger of cyberwarfare:   https://centerforsecuritypolicy.org/wpcontent/uploads/2022/02/Waller_Russia_V2.pdf

Robert Spencer, Senior Fellow:

Clearly Putin is taking advantage of Biden’s obvious weakness and the decimation of our Armed Forces by wokeness and Covid hysteria. He knows that there is little likelihood that Biden will touch off World War III by committing American troops to the defense of Ukraine. Putin also likely considers that even if the American military does end up confronting Russian forces, the U.S. military’s concentration on pushing Critical Race Theory and other Leftist agendas on the troops, as well as the culling that took place due to vaccine mandates, have left our military in such a weakened, distracted, and confused state that it will not pose any significant threat anyway.

Meanwhile, Putin emphasized in his remarks announcing the beginning of the operation against Ukraine that “in December 2021 we once again made an attempt to agree with the United States and its allies on the principles of ensuring security in Europe and on the non-expansion of NATO. Everything was in vain. The U.S. position did not change. They did not consider it necessary to negotiate with Russia on this important issue for us, continuing to pursue their own goals and disregarding our interests.”

If this is an accurate summation of what happened, and there is no reason to believe that it isn’t, then the fecklessness of the Biden administration’s foreign policy is as much to blame for this conflict as Putin is. The question must be asked: was it really necessary to begin maneuvering to incorporate Ukraine into NATO, and to ignore all Russian entreaties that may have led to the formulation of an agreement that was mutually acceptable to both parties?

Donald Trump has left us the example of an America-First president. Keeping the best interests of Americans at the fore, Trump challenged our putative NATO allies to contribute their fair share for their own defense, and he did not threaten Ukraine’s security or provoke Russia by insisting on Ukraine’s inclusion in NATO. The current situation can be ascribed to Biden’s rejection of the America-First principle and determination to ensure benefits for the military-industrial complex. A new Cold War with Russia will almost certainly secure profits for that sector for some time to come, but Biden and company are playing an extremely dangerous game. It could be that after Ukraine, Putin will call the security bluff and challenge our woke, wrongheaded, military. The consequences could be catastrophic

Raymond Orzel, Senior Fellow:

I had the pleasure of visiting Ukraine in April 2021 at the invitation of some officials to provide some perspective on what it might take for Ukraine to enhance its counterterrorism capabilities through capacity building of its intelligence and law enforcement agencies.  As an American of Eastern European roots myself, I was excited to be in the region given a canceled trip to Poland just a year earlier due to covid.  From the moment I landed in Kiev and was expedited through immigration and customs, I was met with the Slavic hospitality that I grew up knowing in Detroit and Hamtramck Michigan.

Upon meeting my hosts on the ground, the thing that was most abundantly clear was the Ukrainian pride that was evident among my entourage as they pointed out all the monuments and historic places atop the hills and along the roads in Kiev.  I was in awe of the Motherland Monument rising from a hill above Kiev.  The members of group I was riding with all described the 203 foot stainless steel statue occupying a spot originally intended for twin monuments of Vladimir Lenin and Joseph Stalin, as a symbol of National pride. 

Other national treasures included, a church dating back to the 10th Century, monasteries, and other symbols of the pride of the Ukrainian people and nation.

However, along with their nationalist pride my friends were also very troubled by the existential threat in the East – Russia.  During our many meetings with intelligence and law enforcement officials, as well as the Ministry of Interior, there was a commonplace acknowledgment that Russian aggression against Ukraine and interference in Ukrainian stability was the most severe threat to Ukraine and Ukraine was longing for help from anyone who could help and would listen.  Officials often talked about how they thought and hoped that America would help Ukraine but worried that Ukraine would’ve left to fend for itself.

After our daily meetings, my hosts and I dined with Ukrainians who had fought the Russians/Russian separatists on the eastern front.  I was astounded by the fact that I was not only in the presence of business owners, workers, students, and parents but Ukrainian war heroes.  In Ukraine it doesn’t matter if you are a government official, a businessperson, or a private citizen, you wear your patriotism, your love of Ukraine proudly.  All Ukrainians want is what everyone wants, the right of self-determination, the right to live free in peace, period. As Vladimir Putin and his Russian thugs are now invading Ukraine we can only hope that the Ukrainian people will prevail, somehow, someway.

Adam Savit, China Program Coordinator:  

While a blitz of Russian missiles and airstrikes struck Ukrainian cities and airfields on Thursday morning, on the opposite side of the vast Eurasian landmass, nine Chinese military aircraft penetrated Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ). This was likely a coincidence as the PLA Air Force has been probing, testing, and seeking to exhaust Taiwanese air defenses in this manner for many months including a launch of 39 fighters, bombers, and intelligence aircraft in late January.

What is not an accident, is that both China and Russia have been systematically testing American resolve and deterrence in a bid for domination of their respective regions. The first targets have been neighboring states with no official defense treaties with the U.S. Ukraine is not in NATO, and while the Taiwan Relations Act vaguely states that the U.S. must “provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character,” it is not a mutual defense treaty.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is less than a day old and still cloaked in the fog of war, but it’s already clear that U.S. diplomacy in the form of tough talk and threats of imposing “devastating” sanctions after the fact has failed to deter Vladimir Putin. President Biden has failed to rally NATO allies to a coherent defense, partially because Germany and other European powers have become dangerously dependent on Russian fossil fuels, but also because of his personal leadership deficiencies and his failure to convince Putin that the military backup to his verbal threats was credible.

In East Asia too, the fate of Taiwan, and America’s other democratic allies in the region, lies in the hands of our president and his willingness to wield our military deterrent effectively. Japan has stated openly that it is ready to fight if the CCP attacks Taiwan. The Quad group (U.S., Japan, India, Australia) and the AUKUS (U.S., Australia, U.K.) alliance may be developing into something potent. But without the unflinching resolve of the United States, none of these countries or alliances can stand against Chinese aggression in isolation. American power is still decisive in any conflict. The situation of Ukraine is not directly analogous to Taiwan, but the broader lessons should make all of China’s neighbors very nervous.

John Mills, Senior Fellow