Iran’s foreign policy instrument set to reap benefits of the nuclear deal

With sanctions relief looming for Iran following adoption day (October 18, 2015) of the JCPOA, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and its covert operations arm, the Quds Force, with a history in staging massive terrorist attacks and sowing destabilization throughout the Middle East serves as a reminder of the dangers that access to more funds will have upon the region and world at large.

From its funding and command of proxies Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, to terrorist atrocities in the 80’s and 90’s, to more recently the establishment of militias and exacerbating sectarianism in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria, Tehran’s clerical regime has tasked the IRGC with preserving and expanding the Shia Islamic revolution across the Middle East.

With these facts in mind, the House Foreign Affairs Committee convened a hearing today entitled “Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps: Fueling Conflict in the Middle East.”  In his opening remarks, Chairman Ed Royce (R- CA) stated that the financial windfall from sanctions relief will empower the IRGC to expand its operations and spread even more chaos across the Middle East.

While the world’s attention is fixed on the Islamic State, the IRGC already has a solid infrastructure in place throughout the world and the operational capability to launch attacks at will.

Since the majority of Iran’s economy is under the direct control of the IRGC in the form of its ownership of companies in sectors such as construction, telecommunications, shipping, and banking either outright or through front and shell companies, the opening of Iran after sanctions are lifted will lead to what some analysts say will be at least $ 150 billion in sanctions relief.

Ali Alfoneh of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies stated that the IRGC assets in the Tehran stock exchange are worth at least $ 17 billion, and that in 2009 it bought through an affiliated company the Telecommunications Company of Iran (TCI)  for $ 8 billion, yet its published budget is approximately $ 6 billion.

In essence, despite being under sanctions for years and entering the JCPOA negotiations under the pretense of obtaining relief for its battered economy, no expense was spared for the IRGC and the Quds Force, said Scott Modell of The Rapidan Group.  The fact that the IRGC was able to sustain its public and covert programs while under sanctions means that its capabilities will naturally increase once they are lifted.

In his testimony, Modell explained how both the IRGC and Quds Force are engaged in sectarian repopulation in Iraq via its sponsorship of Shia militias, establishing foreign fighter pipelines in order to bring Afghan and Pakistani Shia to fight in Syria, backing the Houthis in Yemen, and its propaganda and infiltration campaigns aimed at destabilizing American Sunni allies Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

While both the United States and Iran share a common enemy in The Islamic State and President Obama publicly stated that he hoped the nuclear deal would lead to an opening with Tehran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was quick to dismiss that notion, and since the deal was signed in July, the IRGC has continued its operations unimpeded, with Syria drawing particular emphasis.

Alfoneh testified that the main driver of the IRGC’s behavior in Syria is the preservation of the Assad regime at all costs.  In his view “Washington wants to resolve the conflicts in the Middle East; the IRGC benefits most seeing these conflicts continue.” By deploying non-Arab Shia to Syria along with IRGC ground troops, the sectarian polarization will only increase, negatively affecting US and allied efforts to oust Assad, while some Shia militias are already vowing to fight US Special Forces soon to be deployed against the Islamic State

Former State Department official Daniel Benjamin stated that its involvement in the Syrian civil war is costing the IRGC dearly in terms of both manpower and financially, with even high-ranking IRGC officers killed in action.  His view is that the main driver of our Sunni allies’ behavior is preventing Iranian encroachment in their domains.

For example, aside from a few token sorties flown against the Islamic State, Saudi Arabia and the UAE saw fit to intervene and focus on a costly sectarian war in Yemen, which is now at a stalemate as the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have proven more than capable of holding territory.

In addition, King Salman did not attend a scheduled Camp David summit with President Obama, widely interpreted as expressing displeasure over the continuing negotiations with Iran.  A few months after, the King met a Hamas delegation in order to smooth out differences.

Solutions proposed by the witnesses range from maintaining and publishing a watch list of Iranian entities controlled by the IRGC, and placing a sanctions regime on them.  Designating the entire IRGC and not just some of its units as a Foreign Terrorist Organization would also send Khamenei a message.

The Treasury Department should also keep up its efforts to track and enforce sanctions on Iranian banking and financial institutions that facilitate terror operations.  Finally, a revamping of the State Department’s Rewards for Justice Program is critical.  Increasing its mission beyond the 75 individuals listed would be a start.  Until these solutions are implemented, the IRGC will remain a primary threat to the United States and its allies.