Is INDOPACOM’S Admiral Aquilino On A ‘Fool’s Errand?’
Originally published by AND Magazine
The outgoing and incoming U.S. INDOPACOM commanders, Admiral Philip Davidson and Admiral John Aquilino, recently testified on Capitol Hill that China is their most serious threat. This is a far cry from eight years ago when then-USINDOPACOM commander, Admiral Samuel Locklear, declared ‘climate change’ was what kept him up at night. .The Admiral didn’t even mention the PRC on his list of concerns.
Times have changed.
And, while it is a good sign that the real threat can now be named, there are still at least two practical and one nearly existential impediments to getting close to being able to fight back.
The two practical issues are linked to Davidson and Aquilino’s thumbnail proposal for taking on China in the Indo-Pacific region. They suggest:
First, emplace a network of rockets, long-range missiles, and missile defenses with radars and sensors throughout the region. This will allow the U.S. to do to the Chinese what they can currently do to the Americans.
Second, along with dispersed weapons systems, deploy U.S. forces in more places than at present. .In military-speak: ‘operating in a decentralized and geographically dispersed’ fashion.
The USINDOPACOM bosses also emphasized working with allies and partners – and building ‘partner capacity’.
Admiral Aquilino is asking for an extra $27 billion over five years for the so-called Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI). He says this will allow him to get weapons and forces in place with the needed capabilities to take on China’s Peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA).
However, Congress isn’t eager to write the check for Admiral Aquilino – even though it is a pittance in the grand scheme of the U.S. national budget. Indeed, properly invested, the dividends and capital gains alone from the hundreds of billions in aid Washington forked out over the last 20 years to create an elusive liberal democracy in Afghanistan could have funded Admiral Aquilino’s PDI for a century – with a tidy amount left over.
Whether the Pacific Deterrence Initiative will deter China is an open question. But at a bargain price of $27 billion, it can’t hurt to try.
Though even if Admiral Aquilino does get the money, he faces a further practical dilemma. It is unclear where he is going to place his long-range weapons and supporting systems – or his forces.
The welcome mat isn’t out for U.S. missiles and troops in many places in the Indo-Pacific.
Guam is an oft-mentioned possibility since it is U.S. territory. But it is a small island with a large military presence already, and it’s a couple of thousand miles from Guam to the Chinese mainland.
The Republic of Palau is another candidate – having offered to host U.S. forces last fall. Palau is closer to the action and shows promise. But after Guam and Palau, it’s a very short list of candidates, close to none at all.
Even America’s main regional ally, Japan — where thousands of U.S. troops are based – is sensitive about hosting missiles targeting China. So sensitive, in fact, that one doubts the U.S. State Department has even mentioned the possibility to Japanese counterparts.
South Korea is even less likely to respond favorably. The deployment of a single THAAD anti-missile battery to the peninsula in 2016 raised a firestorm – and intense Chinese economic pressure on South Korea.
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