Massive Military Exercise May Point to a Saudi Intervention in Syria

This week the Saudi government is drawing from 20 nations to launch the largest ever military exercise in the region, North Thunder. The drills participants will be drawn from member states of the Saudi-led “anti-terror” coalition the Kingdom established two months ago.

The Saudi government has staged large military exercises in the past, but it seems each year these exercises grow larger. With the Saudi government concerned with threats from their southern and northern borders, they now need to project an even stronger presence in the region.

Saudi Brigadier General Ahmed Al-Asiri claims the exercise is intended to “enhance fighting abilities, increase coordination between countries participating in the exercise, and facilitate the exchange of information and experience.” The drill may be about more than improving cooperation for counterterrorism however.

The Saudi government has actively opposed the Assad regime, and has aided rebel groups for several years now. But Syrian rebels are continuing to lose territory to Syrian military forces backed by Iranian and Russian assistance.

Taken together with reports of the Saudi aircraft arriving at Turkish base of Incirlik and discussion of a possible Turkish and Saudi ground intervention, and the military exercise could be seen as a show of force to Syria and its allies Iran, Russia, and Iraq.

While the Saudis say any potential intervention would be aimed at Islamic State, the Guardian quoted Saudi Foreign Minister, Abdel al-Jubeir, saying Assad’s removal was necessary to defeating the Islamic State (IS). If the Saudi government and its coalition engage Assad’s forces, it could severely escalate the conflict and possibly start a major war throughout the Middle East.

Aside from the large military exercise, Turkey has been actively attacking Syrian Democratic Forces (made up primarily of Syrian Kurds) through airstrikes and artillery in the past weeks

The Syrian Kurds have primarily targeted Islamic State and Syrian rebel groups they accuse of being allied with Al Qaeda-linked Jabhat al Nusra.

The Kurds have seen recent successes with the help of Russian airstrikes, and are closing in on an effort to join Kurdish held territory around the city of Afrin to the Kurdish held Hasakah province.
Doing so would block off the crucial Azaz corridor, which is the Syrian rebel force in Aleppo’s only means of resupply from Turkey. Aleppo currently faces a siege from Assad’s forces.

While Saudi Arabia and its coalition continue to escalate their military preparations, the U.S has pushed heavily towards peace talks between the Syrian government and opposition forces, and just last week the International Syria Support Group agreed to a “cessation of hostilities” in Syria, but both Russian airstrikes and Turkish shelling of Kurdish positions continues.

With Saudi-supported rebel force in dire straits, States opposed to Assad, including Saudi Arabia, find options other than direct intervention dwindling. Saudi Arabia is traditionally considered to be highly reluctant to intervene directly, but the changes to their relationship with the United States, and their recent intervention in Yemen may represent a changing calculation. If so the upcoming military exercise could be a harbinger for a more robust Saudi intervention policy.