The Death of Abu Mohammad al-Adnani

“Today, they rejoice for the killing … and then they will cry much when Allah will overpower them, with His permission, with affliction of the worst torment by the soldiers of Abu Muhammad and his brothers.” – The Islamic State eulogy for Abu Mohammad al-Adnani

The United States-led coalition in Syria killed Mohammad al-Adnani in an airstrike on August 29, 2016. Adnani, born in Syria in 1977, was the most senior Syrian in ISIS leadership and suspected to be the head of Amniyat – ISIS’s main intelligence and foreign service apparatus.

Fair Bouchrane and Reda Hame, the two terrorists captured after the 2015 Paris bombing, identified Adnani as the main operative planner behind many of ISIS-affiliated terrorist attacks around the world. In addition, Mohammad al-Adnani’s propaganda campaign has inspired smaller, individualized acts of terror. Therefore, his death marks a significant step in diminishing the influence of the Syrian-based caliphate.

According to both Russia and the United States, Adnani was conducting a survey of military operations in the Aleppo region when he was terminated in a air strike. ISIS confirmed Adnani’s death through Amaq, the designated news agency for the Islamic State.

Both the U.S-led coalition and Russia are claiming responsibility for the airstrike, each having completely different accounts. A Russian official claims that military operatives conducted an SU-34 airstrike eliminating the second head of the Islamic State.

The United States routinely raids ISIS safe houses, capturing computer hard drives and cellphones that provide intelligence on movements, communication networks, and plans. This actionable intelligence informs location tracking for U.S Reaper drone/precision airstrikes on high profile Islamic State leaders.

In contrast, Russia has not actively targeted ISIS leadership or used precision weaponry in the region. The Pentagon stated that it did not have any intelligence confirming a Russian airstrike against Adnani. The Department of Defense has confirmed that a Reaper drone fired a Hellfire missile on a vehicle transporting Adnani in northern Syria. It is reasonable to assume that Russia is just claiming responsibility in order to increase influence in the region and possibly prop up the Assad regime.

Either way, Mohammad al-Adnani is dead and his shoes must be filled. Adnani served dual roles in the State – lead spokesman and head of ISIS’s intelligence operation. He brought strategy, unity, and precision to ISIS.

Whoever succeeds Adnani will need to posses a similar ability to foster cohesion and cult-like devotion to the leadership, if the caliphate is to maintain its influence. In addition, the most likely candidate will also need to have combat-related experience and history with the caliphate’s precursors.

ISIS depends on personality cults and celebrity-like leadership. The top two anticipated successors both have extensive backgrounds with the Islamic State. Turki al-Binali joined ISIS in 2013 and wrote several of the Islamic State’s eloquently worded theological treatises that have guided the state’s direction.

Abu Luqman, otherwise known as Ali Mousa Al-Shawwakh, was the first ruler of post-ISIS al-Raqqah and led much of ISIS’s 2015 caliphate strategy. He holds a law degree and is an eloquent speaker. Luqman, served time in Syrian captivity prior to the civil war and spent the majority of the U.S – Iraq occupation recruiting for the precursor to ISIS.

Both candidates are qualified to fill the gaps left by Abu Mohammad al-Adnani. It is possible that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi will split up the role of his second in command. If so, Binali would fit in as the spokesman and Luqman would adequately serve as head of the Amniyat. The United States should anticipate such leadership changes and be prepared for the “affliction of the worst torment by the soldiers of Abu Mohammad and his brothers.”