GCC Will Challenge Obama Admin’s Iran Policy at Camp David Summit

President Barack Obama will meet with representatives from all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – at the White House on May 13^th and more importantly for a summit at Camp David on May 14^th in an attempt to reassure them that the United States is committed to Middle East security, particularly in relation to Iran’s expanding influence in the region and the nuclear deal being negotiated with Tehran.

The Gulf allies, especially Saudi Arabia (the de facto GCC leader), see Iran’s increasingly destabilizing actions in the region and its pursuit of nuclear weapons as part of a strategy to seek regional hegemony, which would compromise their security and lead to an unacceptable Shiite, Persian dominated Middle East.

Tehran has influence over four Arab capitals – Baghdad, Beirut, Damascus, and Sana’a – the latter of which is part of a Saudi-Iranian geopolitical fight where Riyadh gave Washington almost no notice before leading airstrikes in Yemen, indicating the Gulf’s unprecedented lack of trust in the U.S. Furthermore, Iran is suspected of aiding opposition to Bahrain’s government, and Iranian expansion could embolden Shiites in eastern Saudi Arabia to cause unrest there.

Beyond regional activity, Iran’s nuclear program is geared towards developing weapons capability. The GCC countries see Tehran’s nuclear ambitions as a primary threat that would give the latter an unacceptable asymmetric advantage going forward. Therefore, Saudi Arabia has promised to match whatever nuclear capabilities the Iranians obtain, a tit for tat dynamic likely to spread in the region.

Given the current situation, GCC states are nervous about Iranian aggression and that America is withdrawing from its traditional role in the region as security guarantor. After observing the U.S. remove all troops from Iraq in 2011, fail to deliver on vows to unseat Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (an Iranian ally), and reluctantly take action to counter Islamic State (ISIS), among other actions, Middle Eastern governments see Obama as lacking the will to engage in the region.

Additionally, GCC states fear that the U.S. views Iran as a potential partner amidst regional chaos and is forming a détente with Tehran to bring stability. The Gulf allies, for example, see Washington unofficially working with Iranian-backed Shiite militias in Iraq to defeat ISIS, using rhetoric that suggests future diplomatic relations with Tehran, and negotiating a deal that will legitimize Iran’s vast nuclear infrastructure with possible immediate sanctions relief and insufficient monitoring of military sites.

Obama’s April 5^th interview with Thomas Friedman furthered GCC worries when he said, “The biggest threats that [our Sunni Arab allies] face may not be coming from Iran invading. It’s going to be from dissatisfaction inside their own countries.” To the Gulf countries, this comment not only downplays the Iranian threat but also condemns their governments for being repressive.

With America’s commitment to the region in question, GCC countries “need something in writing,” as UAE Ambassador to the U.S. Yousef al-Otaiba put it, ideally resembling a NATO Article Five-like arrangement to ensure that the U.S. will guarantee the Gulf allies’ security amidst Iranian aggression.

The U.S., however, made it clear that no such agreement would happen, which is a primary reason why leaders of only two of the six GCC countries – Kuwait and Qatar – will attend the summit. The other four states, including Saudi Arabia, will only send representatives in an obvious snub, although the Obama Administration denies that the absences are any insult.

Despite announcing there will be no official security guarantee beyond rhetoric, Washington is considering other forms of defense cooperation to bolster the GCC. Obama will likely push to help Gulf States form a region-wide system to guard against Iranian missiles. Washington will also discuss new arms sales and joint exercises, invest in GCC cyber security, and tout its robust but unused military presence in the Gulf.

Although concrete defense cooperation is important, the Camp David Summit will likely fail in its main purposes: to mitigate GCC fears about Iran’s regional aggression and nuclear program and to reassure the Gulf that the U.S. will sufficiently support them if they are attacked.

U.S. actions rather than words will assuage GCC fears, but until Obama changes his policy course or puts a security guarantee into writing, the Gulf allies will continue to be alienated and seek to alter the balance of power in the Middle East on their own. This will mean more violence and proxy wars in the region rather than less, especially if nuclear negotiations with Iran continue as they are. The administration must recognize that U.S. leadership is the key to peace and stability in the Middle East, not the problem.