Spain’s Chaotic Election Overshadows Recent Revelations About Islamic State Threat

Last December Spain held its national elections and four months later, a fractured and divided parliament has still proven unable to select a prime minister. King Philip VI has attempted to broker a last minute deal but was unsuccessful. He has called for new elections for June 26, but there’s public worry that new elections may be even more fractious.

Results from Spain’s national election showed that 80% of Spaniards preferred a coalition government, For decades Spain’s two main parties have consisted of the the Popular Party (PP), led by former Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, and the Socialists (PSOE) led by Pedro Sanchez whose party finished second in the election. Rajoy has repeatedly refused to form any coalition with Sanchez.

The anti-austerity Podemos and pro-market Cuidadanos finished third and fourth in the election, but their political differences make any conceivable three-way alliance impossible.

Even as Spain is struggling to reassert an functioning government revelations from last week’s arrest of  Moroccan IS recruiter Mohammed Harrak who also planned to carry out an attack in Spain has resonated fears again over IS.  Earlier in the month, a cache of weapons along with an IS flag was discovered in the Spanish North African enclave of Ceuta. There were also published reports that IS was planning attacks on popular European summer resorts including Costa De Sol in Southern Spain.

Popular Party candidate Rajoy has been noted for supporting strong counterterrorism proposals, although declined to provide  military assistance to France after the Paris attacks in November 2015. Pedro Sanchez of the PSOE took the opposite approach by noting France’s help with ETA terrorists in Spain, promising, “not to fail” France.

Pablo Iglesias, of Pedemos Party has largely proposed “soft foreign policy” options for dealing with terror, including cutting off financial transactions; relying on United Nations arms embargos to cut the flow of weapons, and increasing refugee rights. Cuidadanos leader Albert Rivera has endorse participation in the international coalition against Islamic State, including using military measures.

The scars from the Al Qaeda-linked 2004 Madrid train bombing have never fully recovered and a serious terror attack like those of Paris or Brussels could have an enormous impact on the outcome of the election. The 2004 bombing and the political aftermath was widely viewed as impacting former Spanish Prime Minister José Aznar’s defeat, and Spain’s withdrawal from the U.S. led coalition. The opportunity to conduct a mass casualty attack that will both garner public attention and also possibly impact Spain’s election once again may be more than either Al Qaeda or Islamic State would be able to resist.