Afghanistan, the forgotten project

Furthermore, the Afghan people will no longer cooperate with U.S. or NATO forces against the Taliban because of the dearth of protection.  The lack of security combined with the intimidation tactics of the insurgents have lead to a great reluctance by locals to assist.  “Whoever shows up with guns on that day, [the villagers] are that guy’s friends,” describes U.S. Captain Floy Rodriguez.^[xliii]  In this Hobbesian world, it is easy to imagine shifting loyalties as fear predominates logical choices.  These two consequences demonstrate that the security condition not only threatens progress in the country, but the relationship between the U.S. and the Afghan people as well.

The current state of security has made other countries reluctant to contribute their troops to Afghanistan.  The Netherlands, a NATO ally underwent significant internal debates before sending their soldiers to the country.  Dutch officials worried that they would get drawn into the fighting themselves or that their soldiers would get implicated in American scandals.  France, Germany and Spain have all refused to send troops to the more volatile southern regions.

The lack of foreign manpower to fight the insurgents has led to President Karzai’s controversial plan to rearm select southern civilians in an attempt to quell the rebellion.  The idea has come under intense criticism for its potential to further destabilize the region and set back the progress of pacifying the warlords and their power bases.  Though the government has called the men who are to be armed “community policemen,” critics have decried it as “a rearming of selected warlords.”^[xliv]  The manpower shortage has led to a failure to achieve one of the principle goals of Operating Enduring Freedom: the capture of Osama Bin Laden and other top al Qaeda leaders.

One of the concerns is that the longer it takes to capture either Bin Laden or Taliban leader Mullah Omar, their mythical statures will grow.  The local Pashtun culture is responsible for these superstitions.  Not only is the population largely uneducated, they have myths that are abound of historical figures with supernatural abilities, such as having the skill to turn sand into bullets or being able to summon hailstorms to fight off foreign invaders.  Omar’s ability to resist capture in the face of a more powerful enemy may reinforce his stature among locals as they will think “God is on his side.”^[xlv]  As their reputations grow, more people might start to revere and support them.

The volatile mountainous region is also suspected to be the hiding location of the al Qaeda member who formulated the recent London plane bombing plots and is rumored to be a close associate of Ayman al-Zawahiri, second-in-command of the terrorist network. In addition to these terrorists and Taliban elements, the stronghold of anti-U.S. warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar is also in the area, further complicating a dangerous place. ^[xlvi]  Hekmatyar has recently announced that he will be collaborating with al Qaeda against the U.S.^[xlvii]  This underscores the importance of stabilizing the region in order to flush out the terrorists so that will no longer pose a threat to the world.

A reason that the United States has not been able to capture members of either the Taliban or al Qaeda is that they have been using Pakistan as a refuge.  Relations between Kabul and Islamabad have been tense as the Afghans have accused the Pakistanis of complacency in securing the border.  Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has said that over 80,000 of his troops have been dispatched to the area to prevent border crossings.

That has not stopped Afghanistan from continuing to pressure Pakistan to do more as Foreign Minister Rangeen Dadfar Spanta recently urged Pakistan “to cooperate more with us in our fight against terrorism…we expect them to coordinate this struggle.”^[xlviii]  The strain on relations has impeded any chance of strengthening the border, which is already hard to monitor because of its mountainous terrain.  Even other countries, such as France have asked Pakistan to do more.  In a visit to Kabul in July, French Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie accused the Pakistanis of not doing enough: “it seems very difficult for them [the Pakistanis to cooperate]” she said in a news conference.^[xlix]