Baghdad Expels Kirkuk Governor, as Kurdish Independence Referendum Nears

On September 14^th the Iraqi parliament voted to remove the governor of the Kurdish controlled region of Kirkuk from office, at the request of Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. Governor Najmaddin Kareem, along with other Kurdish legislators from all factions boycotted the session. The Governor has been a very vocal supporter of Kurdish independence.

On August 29^th councilors in the Iraqi province of Kirkuk voted to take part in the September 25^th Kurdish independence referendum. The referendum is intended to survey the Kurdish population on whether Kurdish Regional Government will remain part of Iraq or eventually begin pursuing independence of their own state. The central government of Iraq has continued to express strong opposition to the referendum.

The Iraqi parliament voted against Kurdish plans to hold an independent referendum toward establishing an independent Kurdistan on September 12th.  The Iraqi Parliament and Prime Minister al-Abadi deemed the referendum “unconstitutional,” in an attempt to preserve Iraq’s existing borders.

American, British, German and French Officials, together with U.N. representatives held a meeting with KRG president Barzani on September 14^th after the parliament voted to remove the governor, offering to find an  alternative to having the referendum in late September.

The Kurdish President Barzani said in a statement that Kurdish leadership will only be ready to accept an “alternative” that better achieves the Kurdish objective of independence. One western ally who is in support of the referendum is Israel, the United States close ally. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a statement supporting the establishment of the Kurdish state.

Earlier on August 22^nd,United States Defense Secretary General Mattis asked the Kurdish Regional government to postpone the referendum after talks with Prime Minister Abadi in Baghdad. Abadi expressed his support for Iraq’s territorial integrity, according to a statement issued by the prime minister’s office.

With the prospects of an independent Kurdistan, Western countries leading the anti-Islamic State coalition fear a direct vote from the Iraqi Kurdish electorate on this public question since the potential for conflict with the central government in Baghdad would divert attention away from the fight against the Islamic State.

President Massoud Barzani, of Kurdish Regional Government claims that he wants to pursue independence though dialogue without provoking conflict. He also made a statement saying that the referendum will be held on time despite the vote by Iraqi Parliament which deemed the referendum unconstitutional as well as the removal of Kirkuk Governor Kareem. The Kurdish president also stated that the vote would not have any impact, on their fight against the Islamic State.

The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) is dominated by two Iraqi Kurdish factions which are the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK.) The current President of Iraq, Fuad Masum,  is a member of the PUK, while the President of the KRG is member of the KDP.

The majority of PUK members are located toward the southwestern areas of the KRG bordering Iran, while the KDP members are in the North of the KRG. The KDP controls a majority of the Kurdish regional parliament.

The Kurds numbered around 30 million people and are widely recognized to be the largest stateless national group in the world. While Kurds are known for its strong cultural unity, Kurdistan is home to numerous languages, religions and political factions.

After World War I nation state boundaries were created along geographic, rather than ethnic or linguist lines. Iraq, Turkey, Iran and Syria oppose the idea of Iraqi Kurdish independence, fearing separatism could spread to their own Kurdish populations. The Kurds currently make up about 20% of the Iraqi population.

The city of Kirkuk is an ethnically mixed and oil rich province, however, it is not formally a part of the Kurdish autonomous region. Kirkuk is administratively dependent on Iraq’s central government, while security is provided by Kurdish forces.

Kirkuk is one of the most disputed territories of the Iraqi government.  The province of Kirkuk is estimated to have around 600,000 people with a highly diverse ethnic makeup. Although, the last full census of Iraq was in 1987 so the numbers are unclear of the current demographic breakdown.

Kurds made up a majority of the city, after Saddam Hussein’s rule despite a campaign by Hussein to force large numbers of Kurds from Kirkuk and replace them with Sunni Arabs.

The ethnic makeup of the city is now in dispute.  The PUK demands the incorporation of Kirkuk into the Kurdish region during the referendum of the establishment of the independent state.

The northern region of Iraq is oil rich. The potential for conflict with Baghdad is heightened if independent Kurdistan establishes and claims Kirkuk under their territory.  Kurdistan holds 40%  of Iraq’s oil reserves. Kurdish leaders establishing the region in world oil markets is a crucial step toward eventual independence.  Even if the Kurds do not claim Kirkuk as part of their proposed independent state, the large oil reserves make a conflict possible if Kurdish independence is declared.

In 2011 Exxon Mobil saw possibility for profit in the Iraqi Kurdish region, and Ashti Hawrami, the oil minister from the region signed a deal then  Exxon’s chief executive, Rex Tillerson, the current U.S. Secretary of State.

In 2015 the KRG said it had been forced to bypass Baghdad  and begin exporting oil directly. The current and former Iraqi central governments have both said the Kurds have failed to respect deals to transfer agreed volumes of oil to Baghdad.

Exxon leased 6 blocks scattered around the autonomous region, one near Turkey, one near the Iranian border, and the rest along the line that divides The Kurdish Regional Government and Iraq. This deal was highly controversial, as the Obama administration opposed the deal, aligning with former Iraqi President Maliki and his “one Iraq” policy.

In December of 2016 Exxon pulled out of three of the six exploration blocks in the Kurdish Sulaimaniyah province,  partly in response to a growing Iranian influence in the area. Kurdish sources claim Iran established of a Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps base in the area in 2016.

The KRG is entitled to 17% of Iraqi’s overall budget, and argued it needed stable revenues to pay its bills, support over a million of refugees fleeing the war in Syria and finance its Peshmerga forces fighting against the Islamic State.

The KRG was exporting over 550,000 (bpd) of oil in 2015.

With tensions from both the Iraqi, Iranian, and Turkish governments over the Kurdish region specifically regarding oil production and the movement of Kurdish forces, the United States needs to be wary that the declaration of the Kurdish state is likely to invoke a reaction.

[Update:] Kurdish President Masoud Barzani made a statement after the Iraqi Parliament voted to remove Governor Kareem from Kirkuk on September 14^th saying “The escalation in the Iraqi parliament has left no room for negotiations with Baghdad.” This statement was made after the Kurdish parliamentary members boycotted the vote. Governor Kareem rejected the decision of his removal describing it as “invalid.”